Source — AITW Ep013 — Five Eyes and 5G; Problems for Aussie Coal¶
Episode Metadata¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Episode number | 13 |
| Title | Five Eyes and 5G infrastructure; problems for Aussie coal |
| Publication date | 2019-03-01 |
| Guests | None (Darren and Allan only) |
| Allan present | Yes |
| Format | Standard two-host format |
Summary¶
A four-topic episode covering: (1) Five Eyes intelligence sharing and the Huawei/5G debate; (2) Chinese coal import restrictions and how to read "signals" from the Chinese system; (3) Venezuela and the question of government recognition; (4) the India-Pakistan Kashmir crisis and the role of ADF relationships with the Pakistani military.
The Five Eyes discussion is particularly valuable for biography: Allan reveals personal experience from the era when Five Eyes was still a classified secret. The coal ban discussion provides a characteristic methodological observation about the opacity and inefficiency of the Chinese system. The episode closes with a quip — "Winter is coming, Darren" — applied to the state of the world.
Key Quotations¶
Five Eyes: personal early-career revelation¶
"I began working in this area in the days when the existence of the agreement was among the most highly sensitive intelligence secrets. So when I pick up a newspaper and see reporters talking about the agreement and photographs of smiling Five Eyes ministers, I have to pinch myself."
— [00:05:37.330 --> 00:08:42.570]
One of Allan's most direct personal biographical revelations. Confirms: he worked in intelligence/national security early in his career (pre-Snowden era, when Five Eyes was classified). The Snowden leaks are credited with bringing the arrangement into the public domain.
Five Eyes: historical account¶
"The origins of the relationship lie back in the secret code breaking work of the Allies against German and Japanese military during the Second World War. So think of Bletchley Park and all of that. The arrangement became more formalized during the Cold War... So this was a signals intelligence alliance in which most things were shared. Exchanges in other parts of the intelligence business like human reporting or spying were much more carefully protected and narrowly traded."
— [00:05:37.330 --> 00:08:42.570]
Allan distinguishes signals intelligence from human intelligence — both by method and by the degree of sharing.
Five Eyes: on Pompeo's threat as an "ambit claim"¶
"Pompeo's claim that the use of any Chinese equipment would bring into question US cooperation seemed like a huge ambit claim to me... We're not going to have a US embassy in any country that has Chinese telecommunications equipment — that's just silly. So that's not going to happen. Of course, they are not least in China itself."
— [00:10:08.570 --> 00:13:50.570]
"Ambit claim": a term from industrial relations — a deliberately exaggerated opening demand intended to give room for negotiation. Allan applies the concept to US diplomatic pressure on allies over Huawei.
Chinese coal ban: resisting the "precise signal" interpretation¶
"As someone who knows the problems of getting effective alignment and messaging within the relatively small, quite efficient Australian system, I'm always suspicious of interpretations that betray things that happen in the huge, quite inefficient Chinese system as the sending of precise signals sometimes on totally unrelated issues, like payback for a rejection of an individual citizenship application or banning of Huawei. I just don't think the Chinese system is built for nuance and subtlety on such matters."
— [00:16:25.570 --> 00:17:54.570]
Characteristic methodological point: the complexity and inefficiency of the Chinese system should prevent automatic inference of centralised intent. The contrast with the "small, quite efficient Australian system" is telling — Allan speaks from direct experience of both.
China: avoiding hyperventilation¶
"The only thing that you can say with certainty is that it's yet another reminder of what's coming for Australia, the difficulty we're going to have with reading Chinese moves because of the systemic differences between us, and avoiding getting spooked by every passing action, understanding the Chinese system as well as we can is the only way through it."
— [00:16:25.570 --> 00:17:54.570]
Venezuela: the 1988 recognition policy¶
"Back in 1988, after a period in which it got into a tangle over recognition of new regimes after coups and changes of government in Fiji, Cambodia and Afghanistan... the Australian government announced that it would no longer formally recognise or withhold recognition of foreign governments. Instead, it would recognise states and then conduct relations with new regimes... in the manner which may be required by the circumstances of each case."
— [00:24:08.570 --> 00:26:57.570]
Allan draws on direct memory: "it was all very frustrating at the time, as I remember." This implies he was personally involved in or affected by the messy period of recognition disputes in the late 1980s.
India-Pakistan: ADF relationships as diplomatic instrument¶
"The Australian relationship with Pakistan has been interesting in recent years... through that period, Australian military relations, especially training, have continued and have given us the opportunity to establish links with the overwhelmingly dominant institution in Pakistan, which is the army... We sent our first army officer for training to [Quetta] Command and Staff College in 1907... So I assume that part of the telephone conversation the Pakistanis were referring to was an effort by Australia to join others in trying to calm the situation."
— [00:34:28.460 --> 00:36:11.460]
Personal relationships built over decades within the ADF matter more than the PM or FM in a crisis like India-Pakistan. Allan draws on the Timor precedent as analogy.
"Winter is coming, Darren"¶
"I agree with you. It's a great series, but I disagree with you that Game of Thrones has no relevance to this podcast. Winter is coming, Darren."
— [00:35:08.570 --> 00:35:18.570]
Darren has been discussing Game of Thrones as a cultural touchstone. Allan redirects it as geopolitical commentary. Dry, economical, effective — a single line doing triple work: wit, pedagogy, and worldview.
Biographical Fragments¶
Evidence type: Confirmed - Allan worked in Australian national security/intelligence from a time when the Five Eyes agreement was itself classified. This is compatible with his career start at External Affairs ~1969 — the Snowden leaks were 2013, so "the days when" could span 1969 through at least the 1990s or 2000s. - He recalls the 1988 recognition policy change and the "frustrating" period before it: "it was all very frustrating at the time, as I remember." This likely places him in a relevant position in DFAT or a related agency during that period.
Style and Method Evidence¶
- "Ambit claim": industrial-relations term applied to diplomatic pressure — reveals a pragmatic, non-idealistic vocabulary; sees diplomatic hardball as recognisable from domestic bargaining contexts.
- Systemic caution about Chinese opacity: an explicitly methodological point, not just an analytical one. He is not just saying China is complex — he is saying his analytical method requires him to resist inferring precise intent from opaque systems.
- The Gordievsky connection: he mentioned The Spy and the Traitor last episode and uses it this episode as a substantive reference point on 1983 nuclear risk. This is a characteristic pattern — reading is integrated into analysis, not just entertainment.
- "Winter is coming": the quip works precisely because it is understated. He has spent 40+ minutes carefully qualifying claims; then he drops a one-liner that says everything.
Reading, Listening and Watching¶
Ben Macintyre — The Spy and the Traitor
"It's the remarkable and thrillingly written story of Oleg Gordievsky, who was the senior KGB officer, the head of the London residency, the most important Russian spy ever recruited by the Brits... it also makes important points about the usefulness of intelligence information to policymakers. What Gordievsky was able to reveal about how senior officials in Moscow thought about the world was really influential in shaping the way both Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan responded to the emergence of Mikhail Gorbachev."
— [00:31:39.570 --> 00:33:08.530]
He also recommends Macintyre's earlier book, A Spy Among Friends (on Kim Philby). Note: he describes Gordievsky's role in the same episode he reveals his own early career in the Five Eyes world. The connection is not stated but may be significant.
Open Questions¶
- What was Allan's precise role in Australian intelligence/national security during the Cold War era? The Five Eyes revelation suggests active involvement, but no specific position has been named.
- His reference to the 1988 recognition tangle — "frustrating at the time, as I remember" — implies involvement. What was his role then?
- Why does he distinguish between Macintyre's books by era (Cold War simple, present complex) but then use "Winter is coming" to suggest the present is, in some sense, worse?