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Source — AITW Ep099 — Much Travel & Many Speeches; PRC Meeting; PIF; Lowy Poll

Episode Metadata

Field Value
Episode number 99
Title Ep. 99: Much travel & many speeches; PRC meeting; PIF; Lowy poll
Publication date 2022-07-18
Recording date Saturday, 16 July 2022
Guests None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present Yes
Format Dense news episode covering the Albanese government's diplomatic activity: NATO summit, Wong's Southeast Asia speeches and Bali meeting with Wang Yi, Marles in India and Washington, Pacific Islands Forum, Lowy Poll. Three reading recommendations at close.

Summary

A long episode with two notable biographical yields. First, the most detailed account in the corpus of the Lowy Poll's founding: Allan discloses that creating an annual Australian public opinion poll on international affairs "was one of the first proposals I made to Frank Lowy when I went to the Lowy Institute as the inaugural executive director," driven by what he calls "a matter of deep irritation to me" — the absence of longitudinal data on how Australians thought about foreign policy. He names the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Pew Research Center as methodological inspirations. This is the fullest version of an origin story first sketched in Ep023, and it reveals something important: the Lowy Poll was not a marketing exercise but a response to a genuine analytical gap that had long frustrated him.

Second, while discussing the nuclear attitude shift in this year's Lowy Poll, Allan describes himself as "a veteran of the last period of tense Australia-France relations following the French nuclear tests in the Pacific in the early 1990s." This is direct self-identification as a professional participant in the controversy over French resumption of nuclear testing in the mid-1990s — precisely when he was in Keating's foreign policy office.

Beyond these fragments, the episode contains a characteristic reading section with three recommendations: Hugh White's Sleepwalk to War (endorsed with the "necessary to read even if you disagree" formula he applies to books that challenge conventional wisdom); a listener-directed animated music video connecting Makassar-Yolngu history (showing he continues to act on listener recommendations); and the Youth National Security Strategy, introduced with the phrase "because it's so damn impressive" — one of the sharpest intensifiers in the corpus.

Key Quotations

The Lowy Poll founding — "a matter of deep irritation"

"One of the first proposals I made to Frank Lowy when I went to the Lowy Institute as the inaugural executive director was that we should spend some of the Institute's money on an annual opinion poll asking Australians for their views on international matters. It had long been a matter of deep irritation to me that there was no reliable way over time of tracking how Australians thought about many critical international issues and just as importantly how these views changed over time. Our inspiration in those early years was the fine work done over many years by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and more recently the Pew Research Center. And in fact, we were able to draw on some of their well-tested methodology and questions."

— [00:42:44.480 --> 00:45:27.780]

"One of the first proposals I made to Frank Lowy" — this was a founding-day priority, not a subsequent addition to the Institute's work. The motivation is analytical rather than reputational: the gap that irritated Allan was the absence of longitudinal tracking data. He had been working in foreign policy since 1969, and throughout his career there was no systematic, time-series record of what Australians actually believed about the world. The Pew and Chicago Council models gave him a methodology. "Deep irritation" is among the sharpest emotional registers Allan uses for professional frustrations — he uses "frustration" and "disappointment" more often than irritation. The fact that this was his first major proposal to Lowy also reveals something about his priorities as an institution-builder: before research programs, events or publications, he wanted data.

"Veteran of... the French nuclear tests" — professional identity in the 1990s

"As a veteran of the last period of tense Australia-France relations following the French nuclear tests in the Pacific in the early 1990s, the shifting Australian views on nuclear issues really surprises me."

— [00:42:44.480 --> 00:45:27.780]

France resumed nuclear testing at Mururoa Atoll in 1995 under President Chirac, triggering an international protest that was particularly sharp in the South Pacific. "A veteran of" is a practitioner's formulation: he was not an observer of that controversy but a professional participant. By 1994–1995 he was in Keating's PM office, drafting foreign policy speeches and managing key relationships — the French tests would have been on his desk. "Early 1990s" is slightly imprecise (the Chirac tests were 1995–1996) but may refer to the earlier 1988–1992 Mitterrand-era testing pause and the diplomatic management of the moment when testing resumed. Either way, this is a specific self-identification as a practitioner who worked on the issue.

"You do get sick of it" — on media China obsession

"But the problem is that the monomaniacal media focus on Beijing doesn't leave space for much else. And you do get sick of it. The media frames a story and then demands a response to its framing. So even when Penny Wong in Singapore delivers a speech specifically to say that the new Australian government is not going to determine its policy towards Southeast Asia only in terms of China... the comments and questions in the media afterwards almost entirely about China."

— [00:26:32.980 --> 00:28:00.780]

"You do get sick of it" is unusually candid — not hedged, not ironic, not qualified. Allan's frustration here is directed at the media's structural inability to receive a message about Southeast Asia without converting it into a China story. He has been making this argument since Ep001: that framing foreign policy primarily through the China lens distorts both analysis and diplomacy. But the emotional register here — "sick of it" — signals that the frustration has deepened. Wong's Singapore speech was a deliberate attempt to escape that framing, and it failed to register. His identification of the dynamic — "the media frames a story and then demands a response to its framing" — is a structural media critique, not a complaint about a single journalist.

On Hugh White — "necessary to read"

"It's not necessary to agree with Hugh, but it is necessary to read him because he challenges the conventional wisdom in Australia and forces the reader to examine the foundations of their own assumptions in order to make sure they can stand up to Hugh's arguments."

— [00:48:29.680 --> 00:50:43.580]

The same formula he applied to Robert Kagan (Ep017) and David Brophy (Ep075): recommend a book precisely because you find it challengeable, not because you agree. This is an intellectual ethic — the value of a book lies partly in its capacity to pressure-test your own assumptions. Allan disagrees with much of White's conclusion but will not dismiss it; he insists his listeners engage with it seriously. This is how he reads, and how he implicitly expects others to read: not for confirmation but for challenge.

Biographical Fragments

New

  1. Lowy Poll founding as personal initiative — "one of the first proposals I made to Frank Lowy" — driven by "a matter of deep irritation" at the absence of longitudinal data on Australian foreign policy opinion; Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Pew Research Center named as methodological inspirations. Confirms that 18 years of data existed by 2022, placing the poll's founding at ~2004. (Ep099)

  2. "Veteran of the last period of tense Australia-France relations following the French nuclear tests in the Pacific in the early 1990s" — direct self-identification as a professional participant in Australian management of the French nuclear testing controversy, almost certainly from his position in Keating's PM office (~1994–1996). (Ep099)

  3. Attended the Youth National Security Strategy launch in person, "a couple of weeks ago" — civic participation beyond the podcast, showing engagement with the next generation of security thinkers. (Ep099)

Reinforcing

  1. Lowy founding ED role — this episode provides the richest account yet of his institutional priorities at the Lowy Institute; the Poll origin confirms his data-driven analytical orientation predated the Institute. (Ep099; also Ep023)

  2. Listener-recommendation engagement — the Bayini video came from "one of our listeners who's worked extensively in northern Australia"; he follows up, verifies, and recommends it. Consistent pattern across corpus. (Ep099)

  3. "Necessary to read" formula — the Hugh White endorsement uses the same structure as Kagan (Ep017) and Brophy (Ep075): read because it challenges, not because it confirms. (Ep099)

Style and Method Evidence

  • "You do get sick of it": rare unguarded candour; the China-media frustration has an emotional register that his usual analytical tone suppresses.
  • Data irritation as professional driver: the absence of longitudinal polling data "had long been a matter of deep irritation" — he builds institutions to fill the analytical gaps that frustrate him.
  • "Because it's so damn impressive": "damn" as intensifier is rare in the corpus; the Youth NSS launch earns it.
  • Dry deflation of the alliance speech genre: "here is the first speech every Australian defence minister in living memory has made in Washington — we love you, you love us, we fight together" — then goes back and re-reads, finding more substance. He names his own first reaction honestly.
  • Calibrated Abe tribute: defers to Bruce Miller (former Australian ambassador to Japan, three postings, fluent Japanese) as the appropriate authority; positions his own comment as supplementary. Disciplined use of expertise hierarchy.
  • "Full marks so far" (on Albanese Pacific policy) — second consecutive episode with a strong endorsement, now slightly more qualified ("so far").

Reading, Listening and Watching

Allan — Hugh White, Sleepwalk to War; Bayini (Jeffrey Gurrumul / Sarah Blasko / Emily Vines); Youth National Security Strategy

"Like all Hugh's books and articles over the past 12 years, he takes a sharp, clear look at Australia's defence plans and strategies... and finds us wanting. Now, it's not necessary to agree with Hugh, but it is necessary to read him because he challenges the conventional wisdom in Australia." — [00:48:29.680 --> 00:50:43.580]

"One of our listeners, who's worked extensively in northern Australia, drew my attention to a breathtakingly lovely animated version of Jeffrey Gurrumul's song Bayini... It's just beautiful. Watch it." — [00:48:29.680 --> 00:50:43.580]

"I want to mention, because it's so damn impressive, the launch of the Youth National Security Strategy, which I attended a couple of weeks ago." — [00:48:29.680 --> 00:50:43.580]

Three recommendations in a single segment, each chosen for a different reason. White's essay is recommended as an obligation — read it to test yourself. The Bayini video is recommended for its beauty and its connection to the Indonesia-Australia historical thread running through recent episodes; it is also the product of a listener tip, which he names and acts on — consistent with his practice across the corpus. The Youth NSS is the sharpest emotional register of the three: "so damn impressive" signals genuine surprise and pleasure at a bottom-up initiative from young Australians. He attended in person, which is not nothing for a man of his seniority. Together the three recommendations trace his intellectual range: strategic debate, aesthetic beauty, civic optimism.

Open Questions

  1. Allan says the Lowy Poll is now 18 years old (placing its founding at ~2004). He says it was "one of the first proposals" he made to Frank Lowy. Does he ever discuss the timing of the Lowy Institute's founding more precisely — was it 2003 or later? (Ep023 confirmed he was founding ED; this episode adds the 2004 poll as a first-year initiative.)
  2. "Veteran of... the French nuclear tests in the early 1990s" — does Allan discuss the French nuclear testing controversy anywhere else in the corpus with greater precision about his role? The Chirac resumption was 1995–1996; his Keating office role was confirmed by at least 1994.
  3. Hugh White's Sleepwalk to War — Allan says he disagrees with White's conclusion but considers it obligatory reading. Does he return to White's argument in later episodes as the AUKUS debate develops?
  4. The Youth National Security Strategy — does Allan mention Dom Dwyer, Tom Smethurst, or the YNSS again in later episodes? His personal attendance suggests genuine investment.
  5. "You do get sick of it" — is this the most openly frustrated Allan gets in the corpus about media coverage? Does similar candour appear elsewhere?