Source — AITW Ep058 — Mailbag: US Failures; Fear of Abandonment; the Quad & Democracy; Grading China Policy; DFAT in 2050¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	58
Title	Mailbag! US failures; fearing abandonment; the Quad & democracy; grading China policy; DFAT in 2050
Publication date	2020-10-11
Recording date	Saturday, 10 October 2020
Guests	None — Allan and Darren only (mailbag format)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Listener questions / Ask Us Anything

Summary¶

Mailbag episode — original guest withdrew; Darren solicited questions via Twitter, AIIA interns, and colleagues. Topics in order: (1) US as failed state? — institutional dysfunction without systemic failure; Allan: "if it turns out to be Donald Trump, to use an IR term, I think we are stuffed"; (2) strategic autonomy — Hugh White's estimate: 50% more spending (3% GDP), nuclear adds another 1%; (3) Fear of Abandonment updated edition confirmed in progress; (4) Abraham Accords and Indo-Pacific applicability — structural differences make transfer unlikely; (5) Australia's Middle East alliance dues — winding down, focus shifts to Indo-Pacific per 2020 Defence Strategic Update; (6) The Quad as "arc of democracy" — Allan admits being "a Quad skeptic myself," opening to revision after second Foreign Ministers' meeting in Tokyo; (7) grading Australia's China policy — Darren: 75/distinction, Allan: harder marker, "more work to be done," names sloppy off-the-record messaging and absence of clear government statement since Morrison's AsiaLink speech (June 2019); (8) DFAT in 2050 — Alex Oliver's damning statistics (Australia's diplomatic footprint smaller than Chile/Portugal/Hungary/Greece; diplomacy = 0.08% of budget; real DFAT expenditure in 2024 will be less than 2014); (9) value of the podcast / Feynman on clarity; (10) has co-host changed your mind? — Darren: shifted toward agency; Allan: "I am holding fast." Classic texts segment replaces usual reading: Allan recommends Gaddis's Kennan biography and Christopher Hill's The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. Major biographical disclosures: updated Fear of Abandonment edition in progress; "I was deeply resented" by Keating's political staff; "we negotiated" the Australia-Indonesia security agreement; Darren's meta-citation confirms both Allan's books by name.

Key Quotations¶

"To use an IR term, I think we are stuffed"¶

"If it turns out to be Donald Trump, then to use an IR term, I think we are stuffed."

— [00:03:50.030 --> 00:06:45.190]

Recorded three and a half weeks before the 3 November 2020 US election. Allan has just given a measured structural analysis of constitutional rigidity, cultural division, and deepening polarisation. His conclusion, if Biden loses, is delivered with a mock-technical wrapper ("to use an IR term") that makes the joke and the genuine grimness arrive simultaneously. This is one of the most direct pessimistic statements in the corpus — registered in a throwaway phrase rather than a considered argument, which gives it more force than if he'd argued it at length.

"My emphasis was on the word abandonment rather than Fear"¶

"I want to make something clear about the title. First of all, my emphasis was on the word abandonment rather than Fear. I don't think of Australia as a frightened country... Our concern has rather been to ensure that we're not forgotten about in our remote corner of the globe. And that concern in turn has been the generator of some of the sort of central aspects of Australian foreign policy, our commitment to an alliance with a great power, a desire to shape the region around us in ways that suit our interests and our support for the rules-based order."

— [00:12:00.490 --> 00:14:20.630]

The most direct authorial statement about Fear of Abandonment in the corpus. Allan distinguishes his book's framing from Allan Renouf's The Frightened Country (1979) — Renouf's title implies psychological fear, Allan's implies strategic anxiety about irrelevance. "Forgotten about in our remote corner" is precisely right: not terror, but the dread of not mattering. He also connects the title directly to the three structural generators of Australian foreign policy: alliance, regional shaping, rules-based order. Given that he is simultaneously "working on an updated edition of the book now," this authorial disambiguation reflects current thinking.

"I was deeply resented by my more politically focused colleagues"¶

"Working as foreign policy advisor to Paul Keating, I was deeply resented by my more politically focused colleagues in the office who sort of glare at me as they walk down the corridors because the Prime Minister was constantly turning down their ideas for visits to marginal electorates and appearances on talkback radio in favor of discussions with foreigners about APEC or Indonesia. So I could sort of get the PM to do anything in my little area of the office, and they had enormous struggles in theirs."

— [00:44:09.750 --> 00:46:11.470]

The single most revealing account of the internal Keating office dynamics in the corpus. Keating's foreign policy obsession — APEC, Indonesia — was a genuine priority that crowded out the political staff's domestic agenda. Allan was the instrument of that preference: he could get the PM to do foreign policy things; they couldn't get him to do domestic things. "Deeply resented" is said with wry affection, not guilt. He immediately adds the honest caveat: "of course, he didn't lose the subsequent elections that my political colleagues may have had a point." The electoral cost of Keating's foreign policy investment acknowledged without regret.

"There certainly wasn't a domestic vote in the security agreement we negotiated with Indonesia"¶

"There certainly wasn't a domestic vote in the security agreement we negotiated with Indonesia. On the contrary, it probably put people off. But Keating nevertheless devoted hours and hours of precious prime ministerial time to the foreign policy questions he thought were important."

— [00:44:09.750 --> 00:46:11.470]

"We negotiated" — Allan places himself inside the negotiation of what was almost certainly the Australia-Indonesia Agreement on Maintaining Security (AMS), signed 18 December 1995. The most specific claim of personal participation in a named treaty negotiation in the corpus. The AMS was controversial given Indonesian actions in East Timor, and was eventually abrogated by Indonesia in September 1999 following Australia's leadership of INTERFET. Allan notes the domestic cost — "probably put people off" — then uses Keating's investment as evidence for his core position on agency: he did it not for votes but because he thought it was right.

"I've been a Quad skeptic myself"¶

"I've been a Quad skeptic myself, and I may have to change my mind on that, but I'll let you know as my thinking proceeds."

— [00:20:57.070 --> 00:22:41.150]

Allan writing in real time, not offering a settled position. The Quad skepticism was consistent across the early corpus. By October 2020, after the second Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting in Tokyo, he is reconsidering — but honestly: "I may have to change my mind... I'll let you know as my thinking proceeds." The transparency about the process of revising a view is characteristic. He does not paper over the change with confident hindsight.

"I am holding fast" — on agency¶

"Well, I've learned a lot from you, Darren, but on agency, I am holding fast."

— [00:44:09.750 --> 00:46:11.470]

Darren has just admitted his own views on agency have shifted toward Allan's position over years of the podcast. Allan's response is generous then firm. He immediately grounds the position in examples: Percy Spender, Gareth Evans — "it's really hard to look at a minister like Percy Spender or Gareth Evans and conclude that they were the prisoners of their times." His evidence is biographical and empirical, not theoretical. The firmness is not defensive; it is held with evident pleasure. "I am holding fast" is a phrase that captures the man — calm, unbudged, courteous.

"Grading more work to be done"¶

"In my view, grading more work to be done."

— [00:26:50.410 --> 00:29:45.470]

Allan's verdict on the Morrison government's China policy — offered after Darren's 75/distinction. He does not dispute the individual policy decisions (5G, foreign interference legislation, COVID inquiry). His complaint is systemic: too much articulated via leaks and off-the-record comments, not enough through public statement; collateral damage to the bilateral relationship and domestic discourse that Singapore arguably avoided. His last reference point is Morrison's AsiaLink speech of June 2019, which he calls the last clear statement of the government's position — meaning there had been a fifteen-month gap. Soft-spoken but pointed.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: New — Updated edition of Fear of Abandonment in progress (October 2020)

Allan confirming he is working on an updated edition of Fear of Abandonment: "I'm working on an updated edition of the book now, and the past four years have certainly given us a lot to think about." The existing book "currently ends with a sort of a note on the 2016 election in which I say that, you know, foreign policy didn't feature very much in the 2016 election, but, you know, off stage, you could begin to hear the first noises of creaking in the international system. And that noise has become in the four years." The updated edition would need to grapple with Trump, COVID-19, and the Australia-China relationship deterioration. (Ep058)

Evidence type: Confirmed — Personal role in the Australia-Indonesia security agreement negotiation

"We negotiated" the Australia-Indonesia security agreement: "There certainly wasn't a domestic vote in the security agreement we negotiated with Indonesia. On the contrary, it probably put people off." (Ep058) "We negotiated" places Allan as a participant in the negotiation of what was almost certainly the Australia-Indonesia Agreement on Maintaining Security (AMS), signed 18 December 1995. This is the most specific claim of personal involvement in a named treaty negotiation in the corpus. The AMS established the closest formal security relationship between Australia and Indonesia since the 1974 Timor crisis. It was abrogated by Indonesia in September 1999 after Australia led INTERFET into East Timor. Allan was confirmed in Keating's office as international advisor throughout 1994–1996 (Ep014, Ep023).

Evidence type: Confirmed (corroborating) — Keating office internal dynamics; PM access

"Deeply resented" by Keating's political staff; unusual PM access in foreign policy: "Working as foreign policy advisor to Paul Keating, I was deeply resented by my more politically focused colleagues in the office who sort of glare at me as they walk down the corridors because the Prime Minister was constantly turning down their ideas for visits to marginal electorates and appearances on talkback radio in favor of discussions with foreigners about APEC or Indonesia. So I could sort of get the PM to do anything in my little area of the office, and they had enormous struggles in theirs." (Ep058) The most detailed account of Keating office dynamics in the corpus. Confirms both the intensity of Keating's foreign policy engagement and Allan's privileged position as its instrument.

Style and Method Evidence¶

Authorial self-correction on Fear of Abandonment: Insists on "abandonment" over "Fear" as the operative word in his own book title — distinguishes between psychological fear and strategic concern about irrelevance. Precision applied to his own framing.
Harder marker than Darren on China policy: Refuses the numerical grade. Names the systemic failure (undisciplined messaging, leaks, collateral damage) without disputing the individual decisions. Signals where the standard is and exactly where it wasn't met.
Provisional Quad reassessment: "I may have to change my mind... I'll let you know as my thinking proceeds" — complete transparency about ongoing revision. He does not pretend to a settled view he doesn't have.
On the podcast as accountability structure: "It's awful to know that what you've said in the past can be brought back and used against you." He does not mind this; the consistency requirement is productive discipline.
"Unable to fall back on professional shorthand": "I'm unable to fall back on the shorthand communications that professionals in any discipline often use with each other and which sometimes prevents them from seeing issues freshly." Identifies Darren's non-practitioner perspective as a productive constraint on his own habits of thought.
Unresolved theory of minilateralism: Admits "I still haven't worked out" his theory of minilateralism, raised by Darren in a previous episode. Intellectual openness about questions he has not yet resolved.
Percy Spender and Gareth Evans as agency exemplars: Invokes both as cases where individuals demonstrably shaped outcomes, not just reflected structural conditions. His evidence for the agency position is always biographical.

Reading / Listening Segment¶

This episode uses a special format: "classic texts for a career in international affairs" in lieu of the usual reading/watching/listening segment.

Allan recommends:

John Lewis Gaddis — George F. Kennan: An American Life (Penguin Press, 2011): "On how one individual in the system can interact with and influence their own times — agency again, Darren." Allan's framing is explicit: Kennan as a case study in individual agency within institutional constraint. Consistent with his position on agency as argued throughout this episode and the corpus. The book won the Pulitzer Prize for Biography in 2012.
Christopher Hill (British) — The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy (Palgrave Macmillan, 2003): "Because there's so little useful that's been written on foreign policy compared with strategic and defense policy. And because foreign policy is what fundamentally interests me." A systemic analysis of foreign policy as a political phenomenon by the British scholar Christopher Hill (distinct from the American historian of the same name). Allan's framing reveals a consistent preference: foreign policy analysis over strategic/defence analysis; the political over the military.

Darren references (not new recommendations): - Evan Osnos, Age of Ambition — "as Allan, you've recommended before, as did Francis [Adamson]" - Richard McGregor, The Party — Darren's recommendation for understanding China

Darren's meta-citation: "other than the two most important texts on Australian foreign policy, which is Allan Gyngell's Fear of Abandonment and Gyngell and Wesley's Making Australian Foreign Policy" — both Allan's books confirmed by name in a single sentence.

Open Questions¶

Updated Fear of Abandonment: Allan says in October 2020 he is "working on" an updated edition. Was it published? A second edition would likely be dated 2021 or later.
The AMS and Allan's specific role: Was he the lead drafter from the Keating office, or one of a team? Did he comment elsewhere in the corpus on the AMS's abrogation in 1999?
Morrison's AsiaLink speech, June 2019: Allan names this as the last clear government statement on China. Is it analysed in detail elsewhere in the corpus?
Allan's "theory of minilateralism": He says "I still haven't worked out" this theory, referring to a question Darren raised in a previous episode. Does it reappear in later episodes?