Source — AITW Ep112 — Cold War 2?¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	112
Title	Ep. 112: Cold War 2?
Publication date	2023-04-04
Recording date	Sunday, 2 April 2023
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Single-topic episode: Cold War II as analytical frame; Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow; Kennan, containment, and the pursuit of stability. Valedictory: Allan steps down as AIIA National President. Allan's final episode. He died 3 May 2023, one month after recording.

Summary¶

This is Allan's last episode. He died on 3 May 2023, one month after recording. The episode is not consciously valedictory — it is a vigorous analytical engagement with the Cold War II question — but it contains several disclosures that read as closures in retrospect: Allan names his high school history teacher for the first time, discloses the origin of the podcast, announces his future title, and corrects a long-held public position on the Cold War label.

The biographical opening is dense with significance. Darren introduces Allan for the last time as "the immediate past national president of the Australian Institute of International Affairs" — Allan has just handed over after five years. The successor is Heather Smith, the first woman to hold the role in the Institute's 90-year history. Allan then traces the whole arc: from Lucy Mayo, his history teacher at Ashwood High School in the early 1960s who was an AIIA member and sent him to listen to speakers at the Victorian branch, through to the podcast, Isabella Keith's column, the COVID transformation of the Institute's events reach, and the monographs on Australian diplomatic history. "Here's to our teachers." He then offers his future title — "Allan Gyngell is a fellow of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and an honorary professor in the ANU's College of Asia and the Pacific" — and Darren responds, "that's quite a mouthful."

The analytical core is a self-correction. Allan has publicly criticised the "New Cold War" label; here he explicitly reconsiders: "on reflection, I think I've been thinking about the term too specifically." The conclusion — "I've concluded that we need to talk up the drama rather than tamp it down if we are to grab the necessary attention of policymakers" — is a practitioner's judgment about the rhetorical requirements of serious policy communication. He then quotes at length from John Lewis Gaddis's The Long Peace (1987) on "the pursuit of stability." The reading recommendation is Gaddis's biography of George F. Kennan: "one of the most impactful books I've read about both international relations and about US foreign policy... I don't use the word magisterial about many things."

Key Quotations¶

"Here's to our teachers" — Lucy Mayo and the origin of it all¶

"I was lucky enough to have a history teacher at Ashwood High School in the early 1960s, who was a member of the Institute, who knew about my interest in a career in foreign relations. And whenever an interesting speaker turned up at the Victorian branch, Lucy Mayo, which was her name, here's to our teachers, would send me off with a note asking if I could sit in the back of the room quietly and listen to the discussion. And it was my first experience of grown up debate about Australia and the world."

— [00:02:13.000 --> 00:04:55.480]

Lucy Mayo: named here, and only here, in the corpus. She is the hinge figure — the teacher who recognised Allan's interest and sent him, with a note, to listen to grown-up debate about Australia and the world. The phrase "here's to our teachers" is a parenthetical toast, inserted mid-sentence, that carries the weight of a professional life. That this disclosure — the name of the person who first set him on the path — comes in his final episode is a coincidence of timing, but a meaningful one. The chain it establishes: Ashwood High School → Lucy Mayo's note → Victorian branch of the AIIA → five years as National President → the podcast itself.

"The seed for which you gently planted with me" — the podcast's origin¶

"I enjoyed the new things that we set up like this podcast, the seed for which you gently planted with me soon after I took the job, Darren."

— [00:02:13.000 --> 00:04:55.480]

The origin story told in a subordinate clause, mid-valediction. Darren planted the seed; Allan took the job as AIIA National President in 2018 and was persuaded shortly after. The phrasing — "gently planted" — is affectionate and precise: it was Darren's initiative, proposed with tact, accepted by Allan. That this is disclosed in the final episode, in passing, as part of a longer account of AIIA achievements, is characteristic of how Allan handles the personal.

"I've been thinking about the term too specifically" — the self-correction¶

"I've criticised people who have used the term New Cold War to describe the US-China clash. I was around during the Cold War, I say, and this is no Cold War. But look, on reflection, I think I've been thinking about the term too specifically... I've concluded that we need to talk up the drama rather than tamp it down if we are to grab the necessary attention of policymakers."

— [00:10:26.140 --> 00:12:50.480]

A public self-correction on a position he had held and defended across multiple episodes. The move is characteristic: he states the prior position precisely, acknowledges the counterargument, and revises. "On reflection, I think I've been thinking about the term too specifically" — the hedged phrasing marks it as genuine reconsideration, not capitulation. The conclusion is a practitioner's judgment, not an intellectual surrender: he is not agreeing that Cold War II is analytically equivalent to Cold War I; he is conceding that the rhetorical needs of policy communication require the drama the label supplies.

"The pursuit of stability" — Gaddis on the Cold War¶

"One of the great scholars of the period, John Lewis Gaddis, describes the core intellectual effort for policymakers through all those years as the pursuit of stability. In his 1987 book, The Long Peace, he said, Stability is not the same thing as politeness. It is a sense of caution, maturity and responsibility on both sides. It requires the ability to distinguish posturing, something in which all political leaders indulge, from provocation, which is something else again... It requires, above all, a sense of the relative rather than the absolute nature of security."

— [00:23:55.480 --> 00:28:03.480]

The extended Gaddis passage — quoted at length, with apparent precision — is the analytical centre of the episode and, in retrospect, its deepest personal statement. "Caution, maturity and responsibility on both sides." "Distinguishing posturing from provocation." "The relative rather than the absolute nature of security." These are the practitioner's virtues that Allan has embodied across five years of the podcast and across a career. That this passage appears in his last episode — offered as the intellectual equipment for navigating Cold War II — gives it the weight of a testament.

"I don't use the word magisterial about many things"¶

"The discussion sent me back to John Lewis Gaddis' magisterial, and I don't use that word about many things, biography of George F. Kennan called George F. Kennan, An American Life. It really is one of the most impactful books I've read about both international relations and about US foreign policy. And it ought to be on the reading list of everyone who worries about where the world goes next."

— [00:33:40.620 --> 00:34:18.380]

"Magisterial" is Allan's highest register for a book — and he uses it here with the explicit qualification that he does not use it often. That the Kennan biography earns this word is significant: it signals that his engagement with Kennan runs deep. The recommendation, in his last reading segment, carries the force of a conclusion.

Biographical Fragments¶

New

Lucy Mayo named — history teacher at Ashwood High School, early 1960s; AIIA member; sent Allan to listen to speakers at the Victorian branch with "a note asking if I could sit in the back of the room quietly." First named teacher in the corpus. "Here's to our teachers." (Ep112)
Podcast origin: "the seed for which you gently planted with me soon after I took the job, Darren" — Darren's initiative, taken up by Allan as AIIA National President after 2018. (Ep112)
Future title announced: "Allan Gyngell is a fellow of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and an honorary professor in the ANU's College of Asia and the Pacific." (Ep112)
Self-correction on Cold War label: had publicly criticised "New Cold War" framing; explicitly reconsiders; "talk up the drama rather than tamp it down." (Ep112)
AI as next challenge: "going to be at least as impactful a shift in international relations as nuclear weapons did." First explicit AI statement in corpus. (Ep112)

Reinforcing

Heather Smith as AIIA successor — first woman in 90-year history; former ONA deputy DG, DFAT deputy secretary. Allan: "I couldn't be happier." (Ep112)
ANU Cold War scholars named: Coral Bell, Hedley Bull, Crawford, Robert O'Neill — "all of them had a really critical influence" on rethinking international security in the nuclear age. (Ep112)
Containment scepticism consistent: economic containment of China "not going to secure, in the end, the national aims of America." (Ep112)
Kennan as intellectual touchstone: Long Telegram recommended for show notes; Kennan biography as "one of the most impactful books I've read." (Ep112)

Style and Method Evidence¶

"Here's to our teachers": the parenthetical toast, inserted mid-sentence; brevity as tribute.
Self-correction phrasing: "on reflection, I think I've been thinking about the term too specifically" — the practitioner's honest revision, hedged but unambiguous.
"I don't use the word magisterial about many things": the explicit qualification that makes the praise meaningful; the reader who protects his superlatives.
Extended block quotes from memory: Gaddis The Long Peace quoted at length with apparent precision; the analyst who reads to absorb, not merely to footnote.
Subordinate-clause disclosure: the podcast's origin told in a subordinate clause mid-valediction; personal facts embedded in procedural narration.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — John Lewis Gaddis, George F. Kennan: An American Life

"It really is one of the most impactful books I've read about both international relations and about US foreign policy. And it ought to be on the reading list of everyone who worries about where the world goes next."

— [00:33:40.620 --> 00:34:18.380]

The final reading recommendation of Allan's podcast life. "Magisterial" — qualified, reserved, deployed once. The recommendation is also, by implication, an intellectual self-portrait: Kennan, the analyst who saw clearly, wrote with precision, was often right and often ignored, and whose Long Telegram shaped policy for decades from a single document. That Allan returns to the Kennan biography in his last episode — "the discussion sent me back to" — suggests it is a book he has lived with, not merely read.

Open Questions¶

Lucy Mayo — does she appear in any other historical record of the AIIA's Victorian branch? This is the single most important named biographical precursor in the corpus: the teacher who first sent Allan to the AIIA in the early 1960s. [INTERVIEW FOLLOW-UP — AIIA Victorian branch archival records]
"The seed for which you gently planted" — does Darren describe the podcast's origin in his own account anywhere? What was his pitch? How did he make the case to Allan in 2018?
"Honorary professor in the ANU's College of Asia and the Pacific" — when was this appointment formalised? Does it predate the recording or is it anticipated?
The self-correction on Cold War — does Allan develop this reconsideration in any written form after this episode? He died one month later; is there any post-Ep112 written record of his thinking on Cold War II?
"At least as impactful a shift in international relations as nuclear weapons" — on AI. Does Allan elaborate on this elsewhere in the corpus, or is this the only statement on AI and international relations?
[INTERVIEW FOLLOW-UP — Darren Lim] — as podcast co-host and the person who "gently planted" the podcast seed, Darren is a primary witness to the AIIA period and to Allan's working method across five years. His account of the podcast's origins and of Allan's final weeks is irreplaceable.