Source — AITW Ep087 — On Truth and Trust in Diplomacy (Morrison vs Macron)¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	87
Title	Ep. 87: On truth and trust in diplomacy (Morrison vs Macron)
Publication date	2021-11-09
Recording date	Saturday, 6 November 2021
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Single-topic: the Morrison-Macron text message dispute as a lens on honesty and trust in diplomacy. Then reading segment (Substack).

Summary¶

A high-yield episode structured around the Morrison government leaking Macron's private text messages following the AUKUS announcement. Allan uses the occasion to establish a foundational principle about honesty in diplomacy — drawn from François de Callières (via Harold Nicholson) — and then applies it systematically to the specific events.

The episode contains one of the most striking biographical fragments in the corpus: when Allan first joined the foreign service he was, "to my astonishment, offered a job in foreign affairs," whereupon he "quickly raced out to a second-hand bookshop in Carlton" to buy Nicholson's Diplomacy to find out what he was in for. The Carlton bookshop detail is small and vivid; the astonishment is the more important disclosure.

His analysis of the Morrison government's handling is among the sharpest in the series: the Coalition's submarine policy is characterised as "a dud deal and a dud contract" (the French contract), now replaced by something "even more expensive and in many dimensions, including timing, more problematic." The alternative to deceiving France was available and obvious — "there would have been nothing wrong with publicly announcing that we were ascending the French contract" — but was sacrificed to "the razzle-dazzle PR drama of the AUKUS launch." On Biden's public rebuke of Morrison: "From Washington's perspective, France has to be managed. Australia will always be there." And he closes with an Indonesia precedent that applies equally to France — and, he notes, to China.

Key Quotations¶

"To my astonishment, offered a job in foreign affairs" — Carlton bookshop¶

"Long, long ago when I was, to my astonishment, offered a job in foreign affairs, I quickly raced out to a second-hand bookshop in Carlton and bought Harold Nicholson's book, Diplomacy, to find out what I was in for. It actually didn't help with that, but Nicholson did quote de Callier approvingly, and the sentiment remained with me."

— [00:05:20.670 --> 00:07:00.110]

Two disclosures in one sentence. First: the astonishment. Allan did not expect to be offered a position in External Affairs when he joined (~1969, age ~21). This sits alongside "from the age of 16" (Ep015) as evidence of long-standing interest, but qualifies it: the interest existed but the job offer still surprised him. Second: the Carlton bookshop. Carlton is inner Melbourne — his home city confirmed (cf. Ep008: Victoria). His first act of professional preparation was buying a second-hand copy of the foundational text on diplomatic practice. The book "didn't help with that" (preparing for the job) but left the de Callières sentiment with him for the rest of his career. One of the most vivid personal moments in the corpus.

"You don't have to tell the whole truth, but a good beginning is to tell nothing but the truth"¶

"In any negotiations, of course, information will be withheld and the arguments will be framed in the most advantageous way possible. Whoever you're negotiating with, you don't have to tell the whole truth, but a good beginning is to tell nothing but the truth."

— [00:05:20.670 --> 00:07:00.110]

Allan's distillation of de Callières (via Nicholson): the distinction between the full truth and no lies. Withholding information is standard diplomatic practice; stating falsehoods is categorically different. The formulation is clean and memorable — it does the work of a paragraph in two clauses. He applies this distinction throughout the episode to evaluate Morrison's actions.

Michael Costello's principle — Cambodia negotiation¶

"Mike said that the first point he had made to each of the delegations was that they should tell him nothing they did not want others to know, because he would be letting all the parties know exactly what he had been told."

— [00:07:23.810 --> 00:09:04.810]

Allan is reporting on a conference he attended the previous week — the 30th anniversary of the Paris peace agreements on Cambodia, co-hosted by the AIIA and AsiaLink. Costello's principle is a practical application of the de Callières framework: radical transparency about what will be shared creates the conditions for genuine disclosure. Allan cites Cambodia as "one of the considerable diplomatic accomplishments of Australia" — consistent with his claim in Ep015 that he was involved in 1990s diplomatic achievements ("I was there").

"If you get a reputation for mendacity, your capacity to shape outcomes shrinks"¶

"Diplomacy is no different from politics or business or the public service. If you get a reputation for mendacity, your capacity to shape outcomes shrinks."

— [00:07:23.810 --> 00:09:04.810]

The practitioner's consequentialist argument for honesty: not a moral claim but a functional one. Mendacity is self-defeating because it degrades the instrument you need to advance your interests. Allan is careful to scope this to "the deep craft and business of diplomacy" rather than UN General Assembly speeches — he distinguishes the performative from the operational.

The Coalition's submarine record — "all this under the one government"¶

"Under this one coalition government, we've seen first the delays and diplomatic backwash from the Abbott government's desire to buy Japanese submarines and then backing away from it. Then the Turnbull government's embrace of the French option, which was to turn a nuclear design into a non-nuclear boat, only to discover apparently, although there's a good deal of murkiness here, that it was a dud deal and a dud contract and the boats couldn't be delivered effectively. And finally, under Morrison, a shift at considerable cost to an even more expensive and in many dimensions, including timing, more problematic nuclear-powered option, all this under the one government."

— [00:19:37.950 --> 00:22:00.810]

A compressed history of Coalition submarine mismanagement across three prime ministers. "Dud deal and a dud contract" is unhedged — Allan acknowledges murkiness in the public evidence but still delivers the verdict. "All this under the one government" is the closing emphasis: the dysfunction is not a single decision but a pattern of serial failures by the same political entity. One of the sharpest summary assessments of government policy in the corpus.

Did Australia have no choice but to deceive? — "I don't think so"¶

"Once Australia decided that we had a better nuclear option on hand, did we have no choice but to mislead the French? I don't think so. I think there would have been nothing wrong with publicly announcing that we were ascending the French contract, explaining the reasons and saying that we were undertaking an 18-month study to examine a nuclear-powered option. That's actually what we are doing. How could the French have derailed it if the Americans were already online? And if this had been all out in the public domain, I don't think it could have been derailed."

— [00:19:37.950 --> 00:22:00.810]

Allan's direct rebuttal of the Paul Kelly "no choice" argument. He names the available alternative — transparent announcement of contract cancellation — and tests it against the strongest objection (French interference). If the US was already committed, French opposition could not have stopped it; transparency would have removed the deception without sacrificing the deal. "That's actually what we are doing" — the irony is explicit: the 18-month study could have been publicly announced, since it is now public knowledge.

"The razzle-dazzle PR drama of the AUKUS launch"¶

"But the razzle-dazzle PR drama of the AUKUS launch was just too enticing to resist."

— [00:22:00.810 --> 00:22:02.810]

Nine words doing the work of a policy critique. "Razzle-dazzle PR drama" names the theatrical packaging of a strategic announcement — the flags, the joint leaders, the simultaneous broadcast — as the real driver of the decision to keep France in the dark. The cost of that drama was the relationship with France. Allan delivers this and immediately moves on; the contempt is embedded in the phrase, not spelled out. Consistent with "blare of trumpets, but very little precision" (Ep084).

"France has to be managed. Australia will always be there."¶

"We certainly learned which ally had more clout on the other side. From Washington's perspective, France has to be managed. Australia will always be there. Is that too harsh? I don't think so myself, but that's what I took it."

— [00:35:25.910 --> 00:35:41.150]

One of the starkest alliance-asymmetry statements in the corpus. The dependent partner — Australia — is taken for granted precisely because of its reliability. "Is that too harsh? I don't think so myself" is characteristic: he states the blunt reading, checks himself, and confirms it. There is no self-pity in this; it is structural observation. The word "clout" is chosen carefully — not loyalty, not gratitude, but power. France had more; Australia has less.

Indonesia precedent — "that'll go for China, too, at some point"¶

"It took until the middle of the following year for the relationship to get back to normal. And that required the signature by the Australian and Indonesian foreign ministers of a joint declaration that neither party would use any of their intelligence, including surveillance capacities or other resources in ways that would harm the interests of the parties. So yes, something is needed. I suspect nothing will happen until there's a change of either personnel or party in Canberra or Paris. But at that point, the thing to do, as with Indonesia then, is to give a signal that acknowledges both the other country's dignity and its interests. And that'll go for China, too, at some point."

— [00:36:18.810 --> 00:37:53.810]

The Indonesia/Snowden precedent (2013) as the model for repairing the French relationship: quiet personal channels, then a formal joint declaration that acknowledges the other party's dignity and interests. The final sentence — "that'll go for China, too, at some point" — is a prospective extension that places France and China in the same structural category. Both relationships are damaged, both require political change before repair becomes possible, and the method will be the same. Recorded November 2021; the Albanese government's China reset would begin less than a year later.

On Morrison's character — "pragmatic and the solver of problems"¶

"In a section I wrote on Morrison in the new edition of Fear of Abandonment... I note that he was pragmatic and the solver of problems rather than a crafter of strategy, a conservative, but a different stripe from Abbott. Then I quote what I think are quite telling remarks that he made to the Aspen Security Forum: 'Conservatives are practical, I am a conservative, and I'm practical.'"

— [00:32:34.810 --> 00:34:19.810]

Allan has published a chapter on Morrison in the new edition of his book (La Trobe University Press). The characterisation — "solver of problems rather than a crafter of strategy" — is precise and damning-by-omission: you can solve problems without a coherent framework for which problems to prioritise. Allan credits Darren's Morrison doctrine analysis as "interesting and persuasive" but adds two corrections: (1) personal relationships matter more to Morrison than Darren allows (Modi, Abe, Johnson); (2) values need more careful treatment — Morrison "moves between talk about interests and values somewhat pliably."

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: New

"To my astonishment, offered a job in foreign affairs" — The most direct statement in the corpus of how Allan joined External Affairs. He did not expect the offer; the astonishment is real. This is consistent with the career-start confirmed in Ep011 (~1969, age ~21, same intake as Dennis Richardson) but adds the crucial detail of unexpectedness. (Ep087)
"A second-hand bookshop in Carlton" — On learning he had the job, Allan went to a second-hand bookshop in Carlton, Melbourne, to buy Harold Nicholson's Diplomacy. Carlton is his location; the second-hand bookshop confirms his reading habits even at 21. The book "didn't help" with understanding the job, but the de Callières sentiment stayed with him. (Ep087)

Evidence type: Reinforcing

New edition of Fear of Abandonment, La Trobe University Press — Allan has written a chapter on Morrison. He mentions the publisher (La Trobe University Press) and quotes from the text. Previously the new edition's launch was mentioned (Ep082: 23 September 2021 with Prof Caitlin Byrne). (Ep087)
Cambodia peace process — AIIA/AsiaLink conference attendance — Allan attended the 30th anniversary conference of the Paris peace agreements on Cambodia (October/November 2021), co-hosted by AIIA and AsiaLink. He is present in his AIIA capacity and references the conference as an event he attended rather than heard about. (Ep087)

Style and Method Evidence¶

Carlton bookshop anecdote: among the most personal and spatially specific moments in the corpus. Allan rarely names locations of personal memories; Carlton is an unusually concrete detail.
"Dud deal and a dud contract": direct verdict with acknowledged murkiness; he does not pretend to more certainty than he has but still delivers the judgment.
"Razzle-dazzle PR drama": compressed contempt, delivered and moved on. The tone shift is brief and unmistakable.
"Australia will always be there": the most compressed alliance-asymmetry statement in the series; characteristic economy at moments of genuine bleakness.
"That'll go for China, too, at some point": the prospective extension — placing France, Indonesia, and China in the same category — shows Allan's instinct to draw structural comparisons across different bilateral relationships.
Indonesia precedent deployment: Allan's historical pattern-matching habit — the Snowden/Yudhoyono episode as the practical model for repairing AUKUS damage with France.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — three Substacks, discovered by accident

"I want you to talk to me about Substacks, because I've found that I'm now subscribing to three... I stumbled on all three of them virtually by accident. I like the form because it doesn't belt you around the head like Twitter. And there's more space for reflection. But at the same time, it remains current. You're getting real-time information. So I've seen lots of references to Substack, but I can't for the life of me understand what the hell it is or what's going on here."

— [00:38:02.030 --> 00:38:52.810]

Ben Herskovich, From Beijing to Canberra — recommended previously; China-Australia focus
Adam Tooze, Chartbook — economic historian; macro and political economy
Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American — professor of history at Boston College; US history and politics

Allan's three accidental Substack finds reveal his reading character: one specialist on his core topic (China-Australia), one on macro-political economy, one on American political history. All three are long-form analytical rather than breaking news. He is drawn to the format precisely because it lacks the "belt you around the head" quality of Twitter — the same reason he is a "conscientious objector to social media" (Ep012) while remaining a voracious reader. His asking Darren to explain Substack is genuine, not performed — consistent with his non-social-media identity.

Open Questions¶

Allan says "to my astonishment, offered a job in foreign affairs" — does this mean the offer came unexpectedly (not a standard graduate recruitment)? Does any other episode clarify the mechanism by which he joined External Affairs?
The Cambodia peace process: Allan attends the 30th anniversary conference and cites Costello's account approvingly. Is there any episode where Allan directly recounts his own involvement in Cambodia (beyond "I was there" in Ep015)?
"That'll go for China, too, at some point" — does this prediction appear to be validated in later episodes as the Albanese government begins the China reset?
The new edition of Fear of Abandonment (La Trobe University Press) — when was it published? The virtual launch was 23 September 2021 (Ep082). Is there a fuller discussion of its contents in any later episode?
Allan endorses Darren's Morrison doctrine analysis as "interesting and persuasive" — does Allan produce his own public-facing assessment of Morrison's foreign policy legacy when the Albanese government takes office in Ep097+?