Source — AITW Ep022 — Hong Kong Protests; Shangri-La Dialogue; US-Iran Tensions¶
Episode Metadata¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Episode number | 22 |
| Title | Ep. 22: Hong Kong protests; Shangri-La Dialogue; US-Iran tensions |
| Publication date | 2019-06-24 |
| Recording date | Friday 21 June 2019 |
| Guests | None (Darren and Allan only) |
| Allan present | Yes |
| Format | Three-topic; Hong Kong, Shangri-La Dialogue, Iran; reading segment |
Summary¶
Three major topics recorded during an acutely uncertain week (Trump had reportedly ordered then cancelled Iran airstrikes the night before). The Hong Kong section is Allan's fullest treatment of the territory to this point: historical framing from the Opium War through to "every time I go back there," endorsement of Payne's measured response, and a guarded defence of the liberal development thesis against pessimism. The Shangri-La section offers a precise account of the Dialogue as an institution and Allan's engagement with Lee Hsien Loong's speech. The Iran section produces one of the sharpest one-liners in the series on Trump's inconsistency. Allan recommends French Defence Minister Florence Parly's Shangri-La speech; Darren recommends meditation, earning a one-word response.
Key Quotations¶
Hong Kong as window into China¶
"Hong Kong had been our window into China for many years... particularly during the Maoist period. It was the only chance the China watchers really got to try and talk about what was going on in the mainland."
— [00:04:44.730 --> 00:06:09.950]
Historical and institutional framing: HK's value to Australia was intelligence and analysis, not just trade. "China watchers" is the term for the community of analysts who studied the PRC when direct access was unavailable.
"Every time I go back there"¶
"It's a much more Chinese city every time I go back there, and in part that's deliberate. Beijing certainly wants to underline the Chineseness of the place at the expense of the exceptionalism."
— [00:06:30.370 --> 00:07:07.370]
Firsthand testimony across multiple visits. Allan has been to Hong Kong many times and is tracking the city's transformation personally. "At the expense of the exceptionalism" — precise formulation: Beijing is not merely adding Chineseness but subtracting what made Hong Kong distinct.
Surprised by the backdown — and why it worked¶
"I was personally surprised by the backdown. I think many commentators were sort of reading a lot of things at the time that the Chinese would never back down from this. So I thought it was interesting and positive that Beijing did take note what was going on in Hong Kong and was willing to be at least tactically responsive to the feelings on the street."
— [00:07:38.050 --> 00:08:16.690]
Candid acknowledgement that his priors were wrong. He marks the update explicitly: "I was personally surprised." The qualifier "tactically" is important — he is not claiming Beijing had a change of values, only of tactics.
Why Payne's measured response was right¶
"I think the positive responses were easier because the Chinese government knew that it was responding to the mood in Hong Kong rather than to criticism from a, you know, parlon of other countries. So this is one of the ways in which I thought Maurice Payne's comment was... she got it pretty right. She made it clear what we thought, but not in a way that made it more difficult to negotiate through the temporary suspension anyway of the bill."
— [00:11:30.250 --> 00:12:33.210]
A structural argument about diplomatic calibration: the backdown was easier for Beijing because it could be framed as responding to Hong Kong public opinion, not to foreign pressure. A loud Australian statement would have made that framing harder. Payne was right to be measured not because loudness was wrong in principle but because it would have been counterproductive in this specific case.
Holding the liberal development thesis¶
"I'm not prepared to give up on the sort of idea that higher levels of economic prosperity over time do translate into a greater demand for personal freedoms and greater choice. I don't see the arc of history having ended here yet on either what happens to Hong Kong or what happens in the PRC itself."
— [00:13:32.850 --> 00:14:44.130]
Allan explicitly holds the liberal development thesis against pessimism — cautiously, without asserting it will be vindicated, but refusing to abandon it. "The arc of history having ended here" — the phrase invokes a longer historical view against the impulse to foreclose on what happens next. This is characteristic: empirical optimism held under pressure.
The Shangri-La Dialogue as private diplomacy¶
"It's a really interesting example of, I don't know what you'd call it, private diplomacy or something... The IISS saw a gap in the market. You know, they saw that there was no venue like Davos at the economic end, and they tried to fill it... So if you want to take the temperature of the conventional wisdom in Southeast Asia once a year, The Shangri-La Dialogue is the place to do it."
— [00:16:25.890 --> 00:18:12.890]
Allan situates the Dialogue institutionally: a think-tank-organized forum that fills a gap left by formal diplomacy, supported by Singapore's strategic interest in being a neutral convening hub. "Take the temperature of the conventional wisdom" — a precise and modest claim about what the forum achieves.
US still struggling in Asia¶
"The US is still struggling in Asia. It was a great pity, I think, that Secretary of Defense Shanahan, who, you know, spent a day or so there sort of trying to convince people of the constancy of the US commitment, stepped down from the job almost immediately after he got back to Washington. So that's sort of inconsistency and incoherence that we're seeing out of Washington."
— [00:21:28.890 --> 00:22:51.890]
The Shanahan example is used not for personal criticism but as a concrete illustration of structural incoherence: the US sends a defence secretary to reassure the region about commitment, then he resigns days later. The message undercuts itself regardless of his intent.
Trump jumps into the void¶
"I don't think President Trump needs an off ramp. I think he jumps into the void."
— [00:29:47.890 --> 00:30:52.930]
One of the sharpest formulations in the series. Not that Trump takes risks or is impulsive — but that he operates without the conventional requirement for an exit strategy. "Jumps into the void" implies that he makes decisions without needing to know how they will end.
North Korea vs Iran: the Trump double standard¶
"Here we have two members of President Bush's Axis of Evil and North Korea tests nukes and gets rewarded and showered with love. Iran complies and is pummeled."
— [00:29:47.890 --> 00:30:52.930]
The most rhetorically pointed observation in the episode. Allan compresses the structural contradiction of Trump's Iran/North Korea policy into two parallel sentences. "Showered with love" is deliberately excessive — it names the absurdity of the contrast. "Complies and is pummeled" is the moral inversion. Allan rarely uses this register; when he does it marks something he considers genuinely outrageous.
Iran: the deal was being complied with¶
"We got into this because President Trump withdrew from a nuclear agreement, which the US had signed, which the United Nations had endorsed and with which Iran was complying."
— [00:28:18.890 --> 00:29:27.850]
Three-part evidentiary statement delivered as established fact: US-signed; UN-endorsed; Iran-complying. Allan does not say "allegedly" or "according to." This is his settled reading of the record.
Biographical Fragments¶
Evidence type: Confirmed - "I wasn't working for the government in the late 1990s" — Allan confirms he was not in government at the time of the 1997 Hong Kong handover. Keating lost the March 1996 election; this is consistent with Allan leaving government service around that time. His return to a senior government role (ONA Director-General) would have come later. (Ep022) - "It's a much more Chinese city every time I go back there" — multiple visits to Hong Kong across his career. (Ep022) - Allan attended the Shangri-La Dialogue (implied by his detailed institutional knowledge and reference to it as a venue where officials, ministers and think-tankers gather).
Note on career gap: The "not working for the government in the late 1990s" comment, combined with the Keating office confirmation (June 1994) and the Hawke-era PM&C placement, suggests Allan may have left government after Keating's 1996 defeat. A period outside government (AIIA? writing? ANU?) before his return as ONA Director-General would be consistent with this pattern. This remains a hypothesis.
Style and Method Evidence¶
- "Jumps into the void" and "North Korea/Iran" contrast: two of the sharpest formulations in the series so far, delivered close together. The second is overtly rhetorical — "showered with love" vs "pummeled." Allan deploys this register selectively, and its rarity makes it effective.
- Holding the development thesis under pressure: "I'm not prepared to give up on" — the framing acknowledges the pressure to abandon it while refusing. This is not naïve optimism but a deliberate choice to maintain the longer view.
- Diplomatic calibration argument: the Payne endorsement is structural, not just evaluative. He explains why measured language was correct in this specific context. This is characteristic: policy prescription grounded in causal logic, not just preference.
- "Personally surprised": marks an update to prior belief explicitly. Allan does this throughout the series — he does not pretend he predicted what he did not.
- "Peace Darren" (response to Darren's meditation recommendation): perfectly timed one-word dry wit. No elaboration needed.
Reading, Listening and Watching¶
Allan — Florence Parly (French Defence Minister), speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue
"It's an admirably direct and feisty speech... from an Australian perspective, I thought the interesting thing was the way she singled out Australia and India specifically a couple of times in the speech as a partner... France is also there [in the Indo-Pacific]. And I think that we will find there is more to be done on Australia-France relations in this area."
A policy-relevant recommendation: France is an Indo-Pacific actor (New Caledonia, French Polynesia) that Australia tends to overlook when listing like-minded partners. Allan also notes the Macron-Morrison meeting at D-Day commemorations and upcoming G20 meeting.
Open Questions¶
- "I wasn't working for the government in the late 1990s" — does this mean Allan left government after Keating's defeat (March 1996)? When did he return as ONA Director-General?
- "Every time I go back there" on Hong Kong — how many visits? Over what period? Does he ever specify what he was doing there?
- France and Australia in the Indo-Pacific: Allan flags this as an emerging relationship worth watching. Does he return to it in later episodes — especially after the AUKUS announcement (September 2021) scrapped the French submarine contract?
- Coral Bell and Robert O'Neill described as having "quite strong Australian connections" to IISS — Allan knows both personally or by reputation; does he elaborate on either in later episodes?