Source — AITW Ep016 — Brexit, More Brexit, and New Funding for Australia-China Relations¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	16
Title	Brexit, more Brexit, & new funding for Australia-China relations
Publication date	2019-04-06
Guests	None (Darren and Allan only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Standard two-host format; one extended topic (Brexit) plus one short topic (Australia-China)

Summary¶

The most sustained discussion of British and European politics in the series to this point. Allan brings personal historical depth to Brexit: he has watched the UK-Europe relationship evolve over his entire career, starting from the time when Britain was so close to Australia that UK relations were handled not by External Affairs but by the Prime Minister's own department. The episode contains a major biographical fragment about the institutional meaning of British membership — and another about Keating's confrontation of French agricultural subsidies. It closes with the founding of the new National Foundation for Australia-China Relations and the appointment of a new ambassador.

Key Quotations¶

Britain was not "foreign" when Allan joined¶

"When I joined the Department of External Affairs, the department wasn't responsible for relations with the UK. Those were handled in the Prime Minister's department on the grounds that Britain wasn't foreign. It wasn't external. That all changed, I think, in about 1970."

— [00:01:56.600 --> 00:05:23.600]

This is a significant biographical and institutional revelation. Allan joined External Affairs ~1969 (confirmed, Ep011). At that moment, Britain was so close to Australia it was excluded from the remit of foreign affairs. He watched that relationship normalise as Britain entered the EEC in 1973 and then deepened European integration.

Harold Holt's warning¶

"Harold Holt, who was the Treasurer, told Robert Menzies, the Prime Minister, that Britain's proposed entry to Europe was, and I'm quoting him, 'the greatest peacetime threat Australia has had to face in the life of our federation.'"

— [00:01:56.600 --> 00:05:23.600]

Demonstrates Allan's command of Australian political history; he is not just summarising — he is quoting Holt directly from memory (or from source). The historical context grounds what might otherwise seem a contemporary story.

Keating and French farmers¶

"I can still remember Paul Keating giving French journalists a lashing during a visit in the early 1990s about the properties of these subsidies."

— [00:01:56.600 --> 00:05:23.600]

Another Keating memory, consistent with his confirmed placement in Keating's office (Ep014). The 1990s visit — Keating "giving French journalists a lashing" — is recalled as a vivid personal memory.

Brexit: strategic failure + tactical failure¶

"What we're seeing is the result of a huge strategic failure by David Cameron in the way he went about proposing and formulating the referendum, followed by a huge tactical failure by Theresa May in the way she tried to implement the results of the referendum. The consequence has been the greatest political upheaval in Britain in my lifetime, who now can look at the Westminster model of democratic politics."

— [00:11:02.420 --> 00:11:55.600]

Two distinct failures, clearly labelled: strategic (Cameron — the decision to hold a referendum this way) and tactical (May — the execution). Allan separates design from implementation, never conflating them.

The Brexit cat (French minister)¶

"I really like the comment by the French Minister for European Affairs, Nathalie Loiseau, who said recently that she'd named her cat Brexit because it meows loudly to be let out each morning and then refuses to go outside when she opens the door."

— [00:11:02.420 --> 00:11:55.600]

The fact that Allan enjoys this — "I really like the comment" — reveals something about his sense of humour. He is drawn to precise, concrete analogies that capture an abstraction without over-explaining it.

Not the system; the people¶

"I don't think the floor is in the Westminster [model]. I think the floor is in the people occupying that model."

— [00:12:15.360 --> 00:13:11.600]

Allan resists institutional determinism. The Westminster model is not intrinsically defective; it has been defectively operated. This is consistent with his general human-agency position in the series.

The referendum question mismanaged (Howard as counterexample)¶

"I always think on this of how much more effectively John Howard handled the question of a referendum, which he knew the answer he wanted to, on the Republic here. You know, it's possible to do it. It just needs more canniness than Cameron demonstrated."

— [00:12:15.360 --> 00:13:11.600]

The Howard Republic referendum as a positive model of managed democratic consultation — not because the result was good (the Republic lost) but because the process was designed cannily. Allan is not endorsing the republic's defeat; he is noting that Howard's management was shrewd.

Brexit will not change the nature of the modern world¶

"Brexit is not going to change the nature of the modern world."

— [00:15:42.600 --> 00:17:20.600]

Compact. The people who voted for Brexit to escape the pressures of globalisation, migration, and modernity have misidentified their enemy.

Challenges create opportunities (deflection)¶

"How we get an unravelling of the global order is by having people like David Cameron have wacky ideas about the form of referenda on these complicated issues."

— [00:17:36.600 --> 00:17:52.600]

Darren asks whether Brexit shows how international institutions can be blamed for the discontents of modernity, leading to unravelling. Allan deflects: the threat to order is not structural; it is the product of identifiable decisions by specific actors.

"Post-imperial fantasy"¶

"The idea that we're about to see a return to global Britain is a post-imperial fantasy. Look, at no time during my life working in these areas did I ever see membership of the EU constraining Britain from doing what it wanted and what it needed to do in the world. Never. I mean, I just simply can't remember it. In fact, the EU strengthened its hand by providing it with leverage and with allies."

— [00:28:27.160 --> 00:30:27.980]

One of Allan's most striking formulations in the series. The phrase "post-imperial fantasy" is blunt — he is naming a pathology, not just a mistake. The personal testimony is important: he has worked with Britain in international forums throughout his career and has no memory of the EU constraining British diplomacy. This is experiential authority, not theoretical.

Brexit as a trifecta of damage¶

"It will be clear from my answers so far that I think that Brexit simultaneously weakens the United Kingdom, the EU and the transatlantic relationship. So that's, you know, quite a trifecta. The world which suits Australia best is badly damaged by it."

— [00:28:27.160 --> 00:30:27.980]

Three connected losses, precisely enumerated. "Quite a trifecta" — dry understatement deployed on a significant claim.

Australia must deal with Europe "on its own terms"¶

"Australia won't be able to use Britain to help us understand Europe and sometimes to make our case there. We're going to be much more on our own. We're going to have to deal with Europe on its own terms. I don't actually think that's a bad thing, but it's going to require a change in the sort of manner and nature of Australian diplomacy."

— [00:28:27.160 --> 00:30:27.980]

Allan looks for consequences for Australian practice, not just for the abstract world order. This habit — "what does this mean for us?" — runs throughout the series.

Trade comparison: UK vs Chinese education services¶

"It's important to remember that our total trade with the UK is only slightly more than our education services alone to China. So the trade opportunities are simply not going to matter all that much for either us or the UK."

— [00:28:27.160 --> 00:30:27.980]

Numerical deflation of the "trade opportunities of Brexit" argument. The comparison is deliberately arresting.

Australia-China Council (founded 1978)¶

"The Australia-China Council was an example of that. It was set up in 1978 and it's done a lot of really good work promoting our education and art and cultural exchanges, including encouraging and supporting Australian studies in China."

— [00:31:37.720 --> 00:32:47.600]

Historical grounding of a current policy announcement. The 40-year history is not incidental — it shows what people-to-people links can achieve over time.

Ambassador to China: the hardest job in DFAT¶

"If you multiply importance by difficulty, it's certainly, I think, the hardest job in the Australian diplomatic service, and only Jakarta would come close."

— [00:35:10.600 --> 00:36:21.980]

The "importance × difficulty" formulation is memorable and characteristic: quantitative-sounding framing applied to a qualitative judgment.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: Confirmed - When Allan joined External Affairs (~1969), Britain was handled by the Prime Minister's department, not External Affairs. He was present at the shift (~1970). - He remembers Keating "giving French journalists a lashing" in the early 1990s about CAP subsidies — consistent with confirmed placement in Keating's office (Ep014). - Directly: "at no time during my life working in these areas did I ever see membership of the EU constraining Britain from doing what it wanted" — five decades of personal observation.

Style and Method Evidence¶

"Post-imperial fantasy": the strongest single phrase in the episode. Allan rarely uses language this charged — when he does, it marks a case where he considers the evidence overwhelming.
Separation of strategic from tactical failure: architectural analysis. Not just "Cameron and May got it wrong" — different types of errors, different implications.
Personal testimony as evidence: "at no time during my life working in these areas... Never... I just simply can't remember it." The use of "I can't remember" as evidence is unusual and powerful — it is experience elevated to analytical data.
"Quite a trifecta": the understatement operates by mismatch — a British phrase applied to a catastrophe. Deadpan.
Howard Republic counterfactual: he invokes a domestic Australian case to make a general point about referendum management — evidence of cross-domain thinking and Australian historical range.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

BBC / various platforms — Brexit: The Uncivil War (dir. Toby Haynes, written by James Graham, starring Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings)

"I've been watching Brexit, the Uncivil War, which is a movie from the BBC... It focused on the Leave campaign and its very intense campaign director, Dominic Cummings, who successfully took on the combined forces of the British political establishment, including both major parties. It was Cummings himself, and this comes through in the film, who is responsible for the inspired 'take back control' slogan and for somehow managing to turn the campaign into one of support for funding the NHS. And Benedict Cumberbatch does a really brilliant job with the part. It's funny and it's revealing and horrifying simultaneously."

— [00:36:29.600 --> 00:38:28.020]

This is the first film recommendation in the series. Allan has been analysing Brexit all episode with exactly this frame — "take back control" as misdiagnosed anxiety — and says the film illuminates the same issues.

Open Questions¶

What was Allan's precise relationship to UK diplomacy during the period when he was active? Did he post to London at any point, or was his European engagement managed through Canberra?
When he says "I just simply can't remember" the EU constraining Britain — is this testimony covering specific negotiations or interactions, or is it a general observation from a distance?
The Keating-French journalists story from the "early 1990s": can this be dated more precisely? Keating became PM in December 1991. Was this before or after Allan moved to the PM's office?