DM Speeches; Midterms¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	105
Title	Ep. 105: G20/Xi bilaterals; FM/DM speeches; midterms
Publication date	2022-11-20
Recording date	Friday, 18 November 2022
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	News episode: G20 Bali bilateral meetings (Xi-Albanese, Xi-Biden); Penny Wong's Whitlam Oration; Richard Marles' Sydney Institute speech; US midterms. Reading segment at close.

Summary¶

The episode opens with external validation of an unusual kind: Darren notes that FM Penny Wong cited Allan "not once but twice" in her Whitlam Oration. Allan's wry response — "I've heard that somewhere before, Darren, I can't think" when noting that Wong's framing echoes the three pillars of Australian foreign policy (alliance, rules-based order, Asia engagement) — and Darren's reply: "I might have read that particular framing in a book somewhere, but I would need reminding" — is one of the episode's finest exchanges. Both are acknowledging, without quite saying it, that Allan's intellectual framework has shaped government language.

The analytical centrepiece is his counterfactual on the Albanese-Xi Bali meeting: "The unwavering resolve on Australia's part had to come with a decision by the Australian people to change the government." This is frank practitioner analysis — the argument that the diplomatic opening required not just policy continuity but a change of government, and that Morrison's "chest-beating triumphalism and contradictory messaging" caused collateral damage that was entirely avoidable.

Two biographical data points emerge. First, Allan names Anne-Marie Slaughter as one of "the political scientists who've influenced me most over the years" — the first explicit naming of a living intellectual influence in the corpus. Second, he reveals his surrogate speechwriter's instinct: "If I was his speechwriter, I must say I would have chosen another image" on Marles' use of "match fit" for the ADF. He cannot hear a minister's speech without being, at some level, a co-author.

Key Quotations¶

"I've heard that somewhere before" — the wry self-citation¶

"I've heard that somewhere before, Darren, I can't think." "Allan, look, I might have read that particular framing in a book somewhere, but to be honest, I would need reminding."

— [00:18:46.280 --> 00:18:51.320]

A mutual in-joke plug for the new edition of Fear of Abandonment, recently published by La Trobe University Press (confirmed in Ep098). Allan notes that Wong frames Labour foreign policy "through the prisms of the alliance with the United States, the rules-based order and our engagement with Asia" — the three pillars that organise his book and run throughout the corpus. Darren's response is equally wry: "I might have read that particular framing in a book somewhere." Both know exactly which book. The comedy is affectionate, but the underlying point is real: Allan's conceptual vocabulary has migrated into government language, and the podcast is partly the channel through which it travels.

The counterfactual on Australia-China dialogue¶

"My view all along and repeated frequently on this podcast is that Australia could have implemented all our policy positions — the Huawei ban, the legislation on foreign interference, even the idea that we should draw lessons from the COVID outbreak, just as New Zealand did — without the collateral damage if the last government had engaged in less chest-beating triumphalism and contradictory messaging... It just seems implausible to me to think that this would have happened if Scott Morrison had been returned at the last election. So the unwavering resolve on Australia's part had to come with a decision by the Australian people to change the government, I think."

— [00:02:55.320 --> 00:04:45.320]

A frank causal analysis of diplomatic outcomes. The argument is not that Morrison's policies were wrong but that his manner caused collateral damage — "chest-beating triumphalism and contradictory messaging." The same policies, implemented with discipline and respect, were always available. The phrase "repeated frequently on this podcast" is characteristic — he holds the record, acknowledges continuity, does not pretend the position is new. The electoral counterfactual is the boldest move: "unwavering resolve... had to come with a decision by the Australian people to change the government."

Anne-Marie Slaughter — named intellectual influence¶

"Anne-Marie Slaughter is one of the political scientists who's influenced me most over the years, particularly through her work on transgovernmentalism, the way experts in different areas from judges to health professionals have linked up to form a new and distinct layer of state to state relationships."

— [00:45:39.520 --> 00:46:45.500]

The first explicit naming of a living political scientist as a significant intellectual influence. Slaughter's work on transgovernmentalism — expert-to-expert networks as a layer of international relations below the formal state — sits squarely at the intersection of Allan's interests: practitioners, institutions, the informal architecture of order. The concept complements his emphasis on the rules-based order and his track 1.5 work. That he singles Slaughter out by name, rather than recommending her generically, indicates a deeper acquaintance with her thinking.

"If I was his speechwriter" — the surrogate speechwriter¶

"If I was his speechwriter, I must say I would have chosen another image. But you know what he means."

— [00:39:25.320 --> 00:41:26.320]

On Marles' description of ensuring the ADF is "match fit." The reflex is immediate: he hears a political speech and his professional instinct evaluates the phrasing. The line is not cutting — "but you know what he means" is generous — but the involuntary declaration of how he would have written it is consistent with his account in Ep102 of owning speech-writing in the PMO. He cannot hear a minister's speech without being, at some level, a co-author.

"Just a deep sigh of relief" — on the midterms¶

"No cold water from me, Darren, just a deep sigh of relief. The results were an unambiguously good sign that perhaps the worst of America's Trump fever is passing. Now, of course, long road to go. But if you add in the outcomes of the G20 meeting, this all feels like a saner world, doesn't it, than when we recorded just a week ago."

— [00:45:10.320 --> 00:45:33.320]

The phrase "deep sigh of relief" is physiological — unusually direct for Allan, who tends to keep his emotional register measured. "Unambiguously good sign" is strong; "perhaps the worst... is passing" is the appropriate qualifier; "long road to go" is the practitioner's refusal to celebrate prematurely. "A saner world... than when we recorded just a week ago" is the historian's ability to take the week's temperature — and a reminder that his emotional life is deeply implicated in the state of international affairs.

Biographical Fragments¶

New

Cited twice in FM Penny Wong's Whitlam Oration — on PNG independence and Whitlam's foreign policy philosophy; the three-pillars framing (alliance, rules-based order, Asia engagement) echoed in the speech — the organisational framework of Fear of Abandonment (new edition, La Trobe University Press). The mutual in-joke with Darren is a wry plug for the book. (Ep105)
Anne-Marie Slaughter named as major intellectual influence — "one of the political scientists who've influenced me most over the years," especially her work on transgovernmentalism. First explicit naming of a living intellectual influence in the corpus. (Ep105)
Surrogate speechwriter reflex — spontaneously critiques Marles' "match fit" phrasing and declares he would have chosen differently. Consistent with PMO speech-writing possessiveness in Ep102. (Ep105)

Reinforcing

"Chest-beating triumphalism" as Morrison failure diagnosis — consistent with Ep097 "internal fracturing"; sharpened here to the counterfactual that the same policies could have been implemented without collateral damage. (Ep105)
"Bipartisanship can be overvalued" — "if we want a good foreign policy, we've got to have a democratic debate about its elements." Pushes against the consensus that bipartisanship is always desirable. (Ep105)
G20 and middle power imperative — "being in the room isn't something we should take for granted. One of our jobs in the G20, it's always seemed to me, is to make it operate as effectively as possible." (Ep105)

Style and Method Evidence¶

"Be careful of overinterpretation": on Xi-Trudeau exchange; deflates media hyperbole with a practitioner's reading of what actually happened on YouTube.
Wry self-citation: "I've heard that somewhere before, Darren, I can't think" — self-awareness without self-promotion.
"But you know what he means": the generous closing qualifier after a critical observation; critique without dismissal.
Mood as data: "a deep sigh of relief... this all feels like a saner world" — unusually physical and personal register, indicating genuine stakes.
"Repeated frequently on this podcast": holds the record explicitly; does not pretend position is new.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Anne-Marie Slaughter interview, Seneca podcast

"Anne-Marie Slaughter is one of the political scientists who's influenced me most over the years... She's particularly interesting on the balance between global issues like climate change and geopolitics in American policy and also on the dangers of groupthink in Washington."

— [00:45:39.520 --> 00:46:45.500]

A recommendation that doubles as intellectual biography. By naming Slaughter as a major influence and connecting her current work on groupthink to earlier episode discussions, Allan frames the recommendation as both topically relevant and personally significant. The groupthink concern echoes his endorsement of Jessica Chen Weiss in Ep101 — both name the corruption of analytical quality by political environment. Allan consistently recommends people who diagnose the dangers he most fears.

Open Questions¶

The three-pillars framing (alliance, rules-based order, Asia engagement) is from Fear of Abandonment (new edition). Does Allan ever describe the book's reception or its influence on government thinking more directly? Does he note that Wong's speech drew on it?
Anne-Marie Slaughter — does she appear elsewhere in the corpus? Does transgovernmentalism as a concept inform his analysis of specific diplomatic mechanisms (Track 1.5, AIIA networks)?
"Bipartisanship can be overvalued" — does Allan elaborate this elsewhere? Is there a specific context in which he argues for more contested foreign policy debate?
The Wong citations — what exactly did she quote? Does Allan ever describe the specific passages she used?
"The worst of America's Trump fever is passing" — does Allan return to this assessment as the 2024 election approaches?