Source — AITW Ep090 — Lessons from 2021; Expectations and Hopes for 2022¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	90
Title	Ep. 90: Lessons from 2021; expectations and hopes for 2022
Publication date	2022-01-14
Recording date	Thursday, 13 January 2022
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Year-in-review / year-ahead episode. Reading segment at close.

Summary¶

The annual retrospective format draws out some of Allan's most reflective and crystalline formulations. The headline analytical verdict — "the United States has ceased to be a constant for Australian foreign policy and has become a variable" — is among the most compressed and important in the corpus: a single sentence that captures a structural shift he has been circling since Ep001 but never stated quite so cleanly before.

Two biographical details reward attention. The first is a quoted aphorism from an unnamed "wily old DFAT boss": "if you piss into the wind for long enough, the direction will eventually change." He deploys it in self-deprecating context (his persistent criticism of the lack of public AUKUS documentation), but the quotation is itself a biographical signal — he had a DFAT superior whose earthy, pragmatic wisdom stayed with him. The second is his Christmas reading on Afghanistan: "reflections by several Australians who've had long-term involvement in Afghanistan about the trauma of the endgame there, both for the Afghan people, of course, but also for those who were trying to help." The phrase "those who were trying to help" — given his confirmed direct involvement in Afghanistan-Pakistan discussions during the Holbrooke era (Ep037) — is not impersonal.

The episode also contains his most explicit self-correction of a running joke: the Fear of Abandonment gag has "reached the end of its life." And he flags, unusually, that he and Darren are agreeing too much: "we're agreeing too much today, Darren." Both are characteristic.

Finally: he records on 13 January 2022, predicts "a pretty calm year" internationally, and names Putin as his single exception — while noting that those he trusts most think Russia "less likely to act than to stake out a position." Ukraine would be invaded five weeks later.

Key Quotations¶

"The United States has ceased to be a constant and has become a variable"¶

"For me, the biggest lesson of the year was that the United States has ceased to be a constant for Australian foreign policy and has become a variable, and I think that's a step change."

— [00:01:10.620 --> 00:05:05.660]

The most compressed and important formulation on the US alliance in the corpus. Every word carries weight: "constant" and "variable" are drawn from the language of analysis itself, not from politics. "Step change" signals a structural discontinuity, not a cyclical fluctuation. He has been building towards this since Ep001's insistence that Australia must not outsource its thinking to Washington, and since his growing alarm at the January 6th Capitol attack (Ep065). Here the observation hardens into a single, stable verdict. The professional register is notable: a man who spent most of his career depending on US constancy as a baseline assumption is now saying that baseline no longer holds.

"Throughout most of my professional life, that no longer applies"¶

"The certainty we used to have that American policy would continue no matter who occupied the White House — that's been an absolute truism throughout most of my professional life. That no longer applies."

— [00:09:22.100 --> 00:10:40.080]

The personal stakes of the "constant/variable" argument. "Most of my professional life" is a span of roughly fifty years — from External Affairs in 1969 through the ONA and into the AIIA presidency. The truism was the baseline of his entire career as a practitioner and analyst. Saying it "no longer applies" is not an academic observation; it is a practitioner's acknowledgement that the ground has shifted under the framework he used to do his job.

"A wily old DFAT boss of mine"¶

"As a wily old DFAT boss of mine used to say, if you piss into the wind for long enough, the direction will eventually change. So here I stand continuing to urinate."

— [00:29:03.420 --> 00:31:10.290]

The sole direct quotation of a named-but-unnamed DFAT superior in the corpus. The aphorism is earthy, pragmatic, and self-deprecating — qualities Allan admires and employs. He uses it in the context of his persistent criticism of the government's failure to publish any formal AUKUS documentation: he has been making this point for months without effect, but he intends to keep making it. The closing "here I stand continuing to urinate" is dry and genuine. The phrase "wily old DFAT boss" implies longevity, seniority, and a certain knowing pragmatism in the superior — someone who had seen campaigns conducted without immediate effect and had a pithy framework for endurance. The identity of this boss is unconfirmed in the corpus.

Afghanistan — "those who were trying to help"¶

"I've been reading over Christmas reflections by several Australians who've had long-term involvement in Afghanistan about the trauma of the endgame there, both for the Afghan people, of course, but also for those who were trying to help. The humanitarian crisis is now indisputable... it's really crucial that all of us who are involved there, including the US and Australia, work out how to lose a war in a way that does least possible harm to the Afghan people."

— [00:31:43.870 --> 00:35:20.380]

"Those who were trying to help" carries personal weight. Allan was confirmed in Ep037 as "heavily involved in Canberra discussions about Afghanistan and Pakistan during the period Holbrooke was the US representative" (2009–2010). His Christmas reading on Afghanistan — reflections by practitioners, not analysts — and his framing of the trauma as something felt "both for the Afghan people... but also for those who were trying to help" suggests he is reading about, and possibly reading by, colleagues. "How to lose a war in a way that does least possible harm" is a practically and morally precise formulation — not recrimination, not strategic analysis, but the question of how to manage a defeat with decency.

The Great Convergence reversal — Oxfam statistic¶

"A really startling statistic I read recently... was that according to an Oxfam report to Davos, the world's richest 1% in 2019 had more than twice as much wealth as the other 6.9 billion people on earth put together, and that the 22 richest men in the world had more wealth than all the women living on the continent of Africa."

— [00:19:58.510 --> 00:21:44.730]

Allan draws this from the Kahl/Wright Aftershocks book (his Christmas reading) and flags it as "startling" — his word for data that genuinely surprises him. He contextualises it through Jean Pisani-Ferry's "Global Asymmetries Strike Back" paper (recommended in an earlier reading segment), which argues that global asymmetries are not only entrenched but resurgent. His concern is specifically structural and strategic: the Asian miracle and its benefit to Australia depended on the Great Convergence; a reversal of that convergence creates new regional instabilities. The Oxfam statistic is deployed not for its shock value but as evidence for a trend with direct consequences for Australian foreign policy.

Fear of Abandonment joke — "reaching the end of its life"¶

"It's so good of you to remember, Darren. As it happens, yes, a new updated edition did come out during the year and is available at all good bookstores or on the Black Ink website. Sorry. More broadly, though, we've got to give up this running joke. It's reaching me at the end of its life."

— [00:24:31.900 --> 00:26:25.100]

Allan kills the joke himself: the running gag of Darren prompting mentions of Fear of Abandonment — carried across multiple episodes — has, in Allan's judgment, "reached the end of its life." The "Sorry" after the publisher plug is genuinely apologetic. He decides when the joke is finished; he does not let it continue past the point of natural life. The phrase "reaching me at the end of its life" is slightly garbled in the transcript (likely "reaching the end of its life") but the meaning is clear. Characteristic: he regulates the social dynamics of the podcast with the same deliberateness he brings to analytical precision.

"We're agreeing too much today, Darren"¶

"I agree with that, Allan. We're agreeing too much today, Darren. Have you noticed that? We'll have to articulate some sharp differences next time around."

— [00:38:10.510 --> 00:39:27.930]

Allan notices and names the conversational pattern. Harmony is comfortable but not productive — the podcast's intellectual value depends on genuine tension. "We'll have to articulate some sharp differences next time" is both a self-correction and a programme. It reflects his understanding of what makes the conversation worth having: not confirmation of shared views but the friction of real disagreement. Compare with his correction of Darren's imprecision in Ep088 and his challenge to Darren's framing of US restraint on China: Allan is as attentive to the quality of the conversation as to its content.

The prediction: "a pretty calm year"¶

"I reckon 2022 internationally will be a pretty calm year... Only Putin looks to have incentives to act in Ukraine, but the people I trust most on this question think he's less likely to act than to stake out a position."

— [00:31:43.870 --> 00:35:20.380]

Recorded 13 January 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. This is Allan's most notable predictive failure in the corpus — not the prediction itself (other serious analysts made the same call; the intelligence picture was contested) but the characteristic humility he brings to it: he defers explicitly to "the people I trust most on this question," names his uncertainty, and adds the North Korea exclusion clause. He does not pretend to certainty he does not have. The episode directly after this one (Ep091) is titled simply "Ukraine." How he processes the failure of his prediction there will be worth attention.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: Reinforcing

"A wily old DFAT boss of mine" — Allan quotes a pithy aphorism from an unnamed senior DFAT superior: "if you piss into the wind for long enough, the direction will eventually change." The superior is characterised as "wily" and "old" — implying seniority and experience. The identity is unconfirmed. (Ep090)
Afghanistan personal engagement — Christmas reading on "reflections by several Australians who've had long-term involvement in Afghanistan" about the trauma of the endgame. Given his confirmed Afghanistan-Pakistan involvement during the Holbrooke era (Ep037), the reading is not detached. (Ep090)
Christmas reading habits — Allan reads Aftershocks (Kahl/Wright) over Christmas; receives Anthea Roberts and Nicholas Lamp's Six Faces of Globalisation as a Christmas present ("one of my Christmas presents, Darren. So it's next on the reading list for me"). Books as Christmas gifts and Christmas as reading time: consistent with his general character as a voracious reader. (Ep090)
"Throughout most of my professional life" — confirms the US alliance's dependability as a working assumption over his ~50-year career. (Ep090)

Evidence type: Nil new — No new institutional roles, postings, or personal anecdotes beyond the above.

Style and Method Evidence¶

"Constant/variable": analytical vocabulary repurposed as political diagnosis — the most crystalline structural formulation on the US in the corpus.
"That no longer applies": four-word demolition of a career-long baseline assumption; delivered without drama.
Killing the joke: Allan decides when the Fear of Abandonment running gag has run its course and ends it himself — he regulates the social texture of the podcast.
"We're agreeing too much today": meta-awareness of conversation quality; genuine intellectual discomfort with too much harmony.
The prediction with explicit humility: "the people I trust most on this question think he's less likely to act" — deference to trusted interlocutors, uncertainty preserved. Compare with his general practice of marking the limits of his knowledge.
"Here I stand continuing to urinate": earthy self-deprecating humour, rare in register but entirely characteristic in its self-awareness about the limits of his influence.
Pisani-Ferry callback: he references his own earlier reading recommendation ("I recommended a paper called Global Asymmetry Strikes Back in one of the reading, listening and watching segments last year") — he tracks and builds on his own intellectual trail across episodes.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright, Aftershocks: Pandemic and the End of the Old International Order

"I've been reading Aftershocks, Pandemic and End of the Old International Order by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright. Karl is now the Undersecretary of Defence for Policy in the Biden Administration, and Wright is Director of the Centre on the United States and Europe at Brookings. The value of the book for me, and I quoted from it before, was its strong historical and global perspective. It begins with the 1919 Spanish flu and makes a good case for its role in derailing the Paris Peace Conference, especially because of its physical impact on Woodrow Wilson and with all the consequences of that failure for the world. And it looks in serious detail, but really interesting way, at political and economic impacts of the pandemic in places as diverse as Bangladesh, Rwanda, Bolivia — sort of places that just haven't appeared in the Australian commentary about it."

— [00:40:39.490 --> 00:41:51.770]

Note: the transcript gives the author surname as "Karl" (a transcription error) — the book is by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright. Allan had already drawn on this book for the Oxfam/Davos statistic earlier in the episode ("I'll come back to the book that I read it in in our final segment"). Two things reveal Allan's reading character here: first, his appreciation for the long historical frame (Spanish flu and Paris, 1919) as the opening of a book about COVID-19; and second, his explicit pleasure in the coverage of Bangladesh, Rwanda, Bolivia — "places that just haven't appeared in the Australian commentary." He consistently values non-Anglophone, non-major-power perspectives (cf. The Wandering Earth, Ep028; The National's non-US indie rock, Ep020). He adds the honest caveat: "I wouldn't draw quite the same conclusions for the future as the authors do" — his reading is appreciative but not uncritical.

Open Questions¶

The "wily old DFAT boss" — which superior used this aphorism? The most plausible candidates are senior DFAT figures Allan worked under in the 1970s–80s or during PM&C in the Hawke era. Is this figure identifiable?
The prediction failure: recorded 13 January, Ukraine invaded 24 February. Ep091 is titled simply "Ukraine." How does Allan process the mis-call — does he acknowledge it explicitly, update his priors, or fold it into a larger analytical revision?
"Those who were trying to help" on Afghanistan — does any later episode reveal who Allan was reading over Christmas, or whether he had personal connections to Australians involved in the Afghanistan endgame?
"We're agreeing too much today" — does Allan return to this self-correction in subsequent episodes? Is there a pattern of him flagging conversational harmony as a problem to be corrected?
The Great Convergence reversal as a new trend: does Allan develop the Pisani-Ferry argument further in later episodes, particularly in the context of Southeast Asian prosperity and the China relationship?