Source — AITW Ep017 — Geoeconomics; Australia's Consular Operations¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	17
Title	Ep. 17: Geoeconomics; Australia's consular operations
Publication date	2019-04-19
Guests	None (Darren and Allan only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Two-host; two main topics (geoeconomics; consular operations) + reading/watching segment

Summary¶

A two-topic episode. The first half is an extended conceptual discussion of geoeconomics — its definition, origins, and application to contemporary China policy — sparked by a Wall Street Journal article on Myanmar renegotiating Chinese infrastructure contracts. The second half examines Australia's consular obligations through three high-profile cases (Assange, Hakeem Al Araibi, Yang Hengjun). Allan offers a major biographical fragment: a vivid memory of being 19, alone in Kathmandu, rescued by a British consular official after a bicycle scam. The episode ends with Allan recommending — while disagreeing with — Robert Kagan's "The Strong Men Strike Back," and a brief observation that Game of Thrones takes geoeconomics seriously in its fictional world.

Key Quotations¶

Geoeconomics defined¶

"It's being defined, I guess, as the use of economic tools to advance geopolitical objectives. We first saw it, or at least I first paid attention to it, I guess, in the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, which talked about... trade influence, as well as bring commercial advantage."

— [00:01:39.540 --> 00:04:10.180]

The hedges — "I guess", "at least I first paid attention to it, I guess" — are characteristic. Allan is careful about claiming origination; he marks when he first noticed something as distinct from when it began.

China and the return of the state¶

"For about 10 years after 9-11, the security focus we had was all on state threats and ungoverned regions, all that sort of thing, and once the global financial crisis emerged, we realised that old-fashioned concepts like states and economic power still mattered, and that the geopolitical world had not gone away."

— [00:01:39.540 --> 00:04:10.180]

Allan sketches a periodisation: post-9/11 focus on non-state threats → post-GFC realisation that state power never left. The word "old-fashioned" is slightly wry — the concepts weren't gone, merely unfashionable.

Geoeconomics as re-insertion of the state¶

"I suspect that it's emerged as a response to fading ideas about globalisation. Globalisation had been talked about as a sort of national project driven by the power of global markets, and Geoeconomics is a way of inserting the state back into the process."

— [00:01:39.540 --> 00:04:10.180]

A structural explanation for why the term gained currency. Allan is not just tracking vocabulary; he is explaining what intellectual work the word is doing.

The Marshall Plan as geoeconomics¶

"What was the Marshall Plan after the Second World War, but a geoeconomic program to shore up Western Europe against a perceived communist threat."

— [00:07:36.820 --> 00:08:08.140]

Characteristic move: anchoring a contemporary concept in a mid-twentieth-century example to show it is not new. The Marshall Plan comparison is used throughout this series as a touchstone.

Caution on overstatement (Darwin port)¶

"I get a bit suspicious of some of the overstatement that goes on from time to time. Like, for example, the idea that Chinese control of this port could change the balance of maritime power in the in the Indian Ocean. I just think we've got to be careful and realistic when we're making judgments about the impact."

— [00:16:11.780 --> 00:16:48.020]

Allan's resistance to overstatement is consistent throughout the series. He is not dismissing the concern; he is calibrating its magnitude.

The proper role of government vs security agencies¶

"The proper role of the security agencies is to minimize risk, but the proper role of government is to manage risk."

— [00:19:38.740 --> 00:19:56.220]

One of the sharpest, most quotable formulations in the episode. A clean institutional distinction: agencies minimize, governments manage. This implies that a government that only minimizes risk has abdicated its political function.

Consular work: the human face of foreign policy¶

"Consular issues are very tricky for the government and for Australian diplomatic missions at any time. They're the human face of foreign policy. So they're often the point at which the Australian public starts to take notice of events overseas."

— [00:23:18.140 --> 00:26:29.140]

"The human face of foreign policy" — an institutional characterisation of consular work that also explains its emotional weight. Allan links public attention to consular issues.

The Kathmandu bicycle scam (biographical)¶

"When I was a scruffy 19-year-old many years ago, travelling very cheaply on my university holidays in India and Nepal, I found myself the object of a scam involving a bike which I had rented in Kathmandu being stolen back by the person who had rented it to me in some sort of alliance with the local cops. So, you know, alone in Kathmandu, I was threatened with jail unless I handed over more money than I had available to me. And having no experience of life at all apart from reading lots of novels, I said to my persecutor that I demanded to see the British ambassador. Australia had no diplomatic representation there ourselves in those days. And to my astonishment, someone from the British Embassy, a consular official presumably, came to the counter when we eventually breached the place and negotiated my paying a much smaller amount. Presumably, he knew what the going rate for this scam was."

— [00:23:18.140 --> 00:26:29.140]

A rich biographical fragment. Several elements worth noting: (1) Allan describes himself as "scruffy" — self-deprecating; (2) "having no experience of life at all apart from reading lots of novels" — the books-before-worldliness portrait; (3) demanding to see the British ambassador was the move of someone who knew the system without yet understanding the world; (4) Australia had no representation in Nepal at this time; (5) the official "presumably knew what the going rate for this scam was" — Allan notices the competence and matter-of-factness of consular officials without romanticising them.

Tribute to consular officials¶

"I can still remember the relief in finding someone who could help me at a stressful time negotiate an alien environment. And there are many more people in much more threatening positions than I ever was. So, here's to the consular officials in Australian posts."

— [00:23:18.140 --> 00:26:29.140]

Rare direct emotional disclosure. "I can still remember the relief" is a felt testimonial, not a policy argument. The episode's abstract section on consular doctrine is grounded by this personal memory.

Factors governing consular intervention¶

"I think there are a number of factors that come into play. I mean, the first is whether the cause is just... A second consideration is whether intervention will be effective, sometimes making it high-profile and going on television and something the desk can be effective. Sometimes it will be completely counterproductive... Another factor is domestic concerns, whether this has become a case that governments feel under pressure to respond to."

— [00:27:33.140 --> 00:28:53.260]

Three-part analytical framework: justice of the cause; effectiveness of intervention; domestic political pressure. Notably, Allan does not rank these — he presents them as factors to weigh in each case. Consistent with his general case-by-case empiricism.

Against Kagan's binary (murky shades of grey)¶

"I'd certainly define myself as a liberal, you know, in terms of enlightenment values. But I don't think Kagan's binary approach is a particularly useful way of defining the world we're in at the moment. I think there's far too little reflection on his part on the actions on our side, including the Iraq War... So I don't agree with it, but it's still well worth reading."

— [00:29:01.140 --> 00:30:50.140]

Allan recommends something he disagrees with — "I'm going to do the reverse" — because it is influential in Canberra. The explanation: "people want to understand the world with clarity... I see the world in various murky shades, shades of grey." The phrase "murky shades of grey" recurs across the series as Allan's counter to reductive frameworks.

Why Kagan has influence (clarity vs correctness)¶

"People want to understand the world with clarity. Now, unfortunately, I don't think the world is, you know, I see the world in various murky shades, shades of grey. But people are looking for frameworks within which to understand it. And this is a framework which puts China in one box and all authoritarian states in one box and the United States and its allies in another."

— [00:30:57.140 --> 00:31:41.140]

Allan explains Kagan's influence sociologically: the demand for simple frameworks in Canberra. His own preference for complexity is presented as carrying a cost — it is harder to act on. He neither endorses Kagan nor dismisses the need for frameworks.

Game of Thrones and geoeconomics¶

"Game of Thrones is interesting in fantasy literature because of the role of geoeconomics. Most fantasy doesn't have much economics in it. But Game of Thrones, from the financing control of the — what is it, the Bank of — The Iron Bank of Braavos — to the role of the slave trade to Dornish wine, trade and geoeconomics play an important part in it."

— [00:33:48.140 --> 00:34:21.140]

A light closing observation, but revealing: Allan notices the geoeconomic dimension of fantasy fiction where others see only power and war. The momentary hesitation — "the Bank of — The Iron Bank of Braavos" — and then confident recall suggests familiarity, not mastery, of Game of Thrones.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: New, specific, confirmed by context - At university, Allan travelled "very cheaply" in India and Nepal during holidays; this was pre-career (he joined External Affairs ~1969, placing this trip ~1968 or earlier if at 19). - Self-described as "scruffy" — unsentimental self-portraiture. - "Having no experience of life at all apart from reading lots of novels" — books as substitute for worldly experience at 19. - Demanded to see the British ambassador when threatened in Kathmandu — procedural instinct even before career. - Australia had no diplomatic representation in Nepal at this time. - "I can still remember the relief" — visceral memory, retained decades later.

Style and Method Evidence¶

"Murky shades of grey": explicit self-description. Allan is not merely complex in his conclusions; he states that complexity is how he sees the world. This is a declared epistemological stance, not a rhetorical manoeuvre.
Recommending what he disagrees with: the Kagan recommendation is framed as "I'm going to do the reverse" of his normal practice. Allan explains Canberra influence as a reason to read something he finds wrong. This is intellectual generosity and strategic self-awareness combined.
"The proper role of the security agencies is to minimize risk, but the proper role of government is to manage risk." — clean institutional distinction, delivered without elaboration, as though it should be obvious.
Self-deprecating personal anecdote: the Kathmandu story is told with light irony — the scruffy 19-year-old who demanded the British ambassador. Allan doesn't moralize from the experience; he just offers it as testimony.
Case-by-case empiricism on consular intervention: refuses to rank the three factors. "It can only be judged in each individual case." Consistent with his resistance to algorithmic policymaking.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Robert Kagan, "The Strong Men Strike Back" (Washington Post article; version of The Jungle Grows Back)

"Kagan was one of the fathers of the neoconservatives in the US. And his argument is that the central challenge in the world these days is the growing divide between authoritarian states and liberal democracy. He calls this a profound ideological as well as strategic challenge... I don't think Kagan's binary approach is a particularly useful way of defining the world we're in at the moment... So I don't agree with it, but it's still well worth reading."

— [00:29:01.140 --> 00:30:50.140]

Notably, Allan acknowledges he has not yet read the book (only the article), but treats the article as representative.

Darren — Game of Thrones (Season 8, Ep 1 just released); Talk the Thrones (Twitter livestream); Vox.com, "Who Will Win Game of Thrones Explained by Political Science"

Open Questions¶

When was Allan's trip to India and Nepal? If he was 19 and joined External Affairs ~1969, the trip was ~1968 or just before — possibly while still at university. The episode confirms university holidays but not the precise year.
The Kagan article was "having an influence in policy circles in Canberra" — which circles? This invites comparison with later episodes where Allan discusses the democracy vs authoritarianism framing.
"Murky shades of grey" is explicitly stated here as Allan's self-description of how he sees the world. Does this phrase (or close variants) appear in earlier episodes?