Source — AITW Ep110 — Ukraine, One Year On¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	110
Title	Ep. 110: Ukraine, one year on
Publication date	2023-02-23
Recording date	Tuesday, 21 February 2023
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Single-topic episode: Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the one-year mark — impact on Australia, battlefield analysis, theory of war termination. Brief reading segment; first recommendation from podcast researcher Walter Colnaghi.

Summary¶

A short but analytically dense episode built around the Ukraine anniversary, with two of the most significant biographical disclosures of the series in close proximity. First, Allan admits that Ukraine "has been a steep learning experience for me" — he worked on the Cold War in the 1980s but "Ukraine simply didn't figure," and he has been learning its geography, history and politics alongside everyone else. This is consistent with his intellectual honesty across the corpus: he reports his actual epistemic position rather than performing expertise.

Second, and more profoundly, he quotes the preamble to the UN Charter from near-memory and announces: "one of the reasons I became a diplomat and why I think foreign policy is such a critical part of statecraft is that its mission, in the words of the preamble to the United Nations Charter, is to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war." This is the most explicit statement of founding motivation in the entire corpus — the idealistic purpose that underlies his entire professional life, stated directly in response to the human suffering in Ukraine. He closes it: "End of sermon." The self-deflating phrase does not diminish the sincerity; it is the practitioner's way of acknowledging that he has gone somewhere personal.

The meta-reflection that precedes the Charter passage is equally revealing: "There's a very real danger, and I feel it personally, that my own tendency when I'm looking at international events like this is to analyze them and to organize them into contexts." He is naming the professional hazard of his own analytical disposition — the risk that the habit of organising events into frameworks becomes a form of detachment from suffering.

Key Quotations¶

"One of the reasons I became a diplomat" — the UN Charter as founding motivation¶

"One of the reasons I became a diplomat and why I think foreign policy is such a critical part of statecraft is that its mission, in the words of the preamble to the United Nations Charter, is to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind and to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights in the dignity and worth of the human person... So, I mean, that's still inspirational. And however much states ignore those commitments, however much they've been trashed during our lifetimes, it's really important that faced with suffering, like we're seeing in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world, we do remember those objectives and do what we can."

— [00:15:46.720 --> 00:18:28.080]

The most explicit statement of founding motivation in the entire corpus. He does not say "my job is" or "the purpose of foreign policy is" — he says "one of the reasons I became a diplomat." The preamble to the UN Charter, recited from near-memory, is the text that grounds his professional life. "That's still inspirational" is the adult's acknowledgement that the idealism of the founding document has survived the evidence of how states actually behave. "End of sermon" is the self-deflating close — not a retraction but a signal that he knows he has gone somewhere personal and is returning to the analytical register.

"A steep learning experience for me" — Ukraine and the limits of expertise¶

"I fessed up on the pod before that the Ukraine war has been a steep learning experience for me. I spent most of the 1980s working on the Cold War and Ukraine simply didn't figure. It was a pretend member of the United Nations, which never voted differently from Moscow. And once the Cold War ended, you know, other issues came along to attract my attention. So I now know a hell of a lot more about Ukraine's geography, history and politics than I did before."

— [00:01:07.080 --> 00:06:54.080]

Honest about limits in the characteristic way: not "I have brought my Cold War expertise to bear" but "this has been a learning experience." The phrase "pretend member of the United Nations" is historically precise — Soviet Ukraine held a UN seat but was not an independent actor. His point about "a handful — I mean that literally, I think you can think of the five or six of them inside and outside government" — who provided real Ukraine expertise at the start of the war — is both a tribute to area specialists and an implicit argument for preserving expertise in unfashionable regions.

"I feel it personally" — on the hazard of analytical detachment¶

"There's a very real danger, and I feel it personally, that my own tendency when I'm looking at international events like this is to analyze them and to organize them into contexts. So for all our expectations, we have interstate war again at the center of Europe with people being killed and maimed and homes destroyed."

— [00:15:46.720 --> 00:18:28.080]

One of the most self-aware passages in the corpus. He names his own professional disposition — the tendency to analyse and contextualise — as a hazard when confronted with human suffering. "I feel it personally" is unusually vulnerable. This is what precedes the UN Charter passage: he first names the risk of detachment, then demonstrates the counter-move — returning to the founding purpose that made the professional life worth living.

George Kennan and Zbigniew Brzezinski on NATO expansion¶

"That doesn't mean, by the way, that I don't also hold the view of George Kennan and Zbigniew Brzezinski that US and NATO badly mishandled the statecraft that followed the end of the Cold War through NATO's expansion. But whatever you think about that, it doesn't remotely excuse Russia's action."

— [00:01:07.080 --> 00:06:54.080]

Two named intellectual authorities on the causal background to the war — Kennan and Brzezinski, both named rather than paraphrased. The structure is his standard move: state the complicating factor, then firmly separate it from the verdict on the immediate action. "Doesn't remotely excuse" is unhedged. He is not a NATO apologist; he is also not a Putin apologist. The two positions are held simultaneously and kept analytically distinct.

Biographical Fragments¶

New

UN Charter preamble as founding motivation — "one of the reasons I became a diplomat" — the most explicit statement of why he entered the profession. The idealistic purpose stated directly, then deflated with "end of sermon." (Ep110)
Ukraine as genuine learning experience — "steep learning experience for me... Ukraine simply didn't figure" in his Cold War work; has been learning its geography, history and politics since the invasion. (Ep110)
"I feel it personally" — names his own analytical disposition as a professional hazard when confronted with suffering; the meta-reflection precedes the Charter passage. (Ep110)
Attended Kevin Rudd's China Matters oration at University of Queensland, Brisbane — "I was in Brisbane last week attending a China Matters oration... by our ambassador designate to Washington, Kevin Rudd." Active attendance at policy events outside Canberra. Assessment of Rudd: "what an excellent analyst the newly admitted Dr. Rudd is." (Ep110)

Reinforcing

Kennan and Brzezinski named as authorities — on NATO's post-Cold War statecraft failures; consistent with his deep engagement with Cold War strategic thought. (Ep110)
"The most creative use of intelligence for statecraft purposes that I've seen" — on the Biden administration's pre-invasion intelligence disclosure strategy; the insider's assessment. (Ep110)
UN and the rules-based order as genuine conviction — "the Peace of Westphalia in 1648... rule number one of the international order is don't invade another sovereign country." The historical reach is characteristic. (Ep110)

Style and Method Evidence¶

"End of sermon": the self-deflating close after genuine personal disclosure; consistent with how he handles conviction throughout the corpus.
"I feel it personally": unusually vulnerable phrasing for Allan; names a professional hazard of his own disposition.
"A handful — I mean that literally": the precision qualifier inserted to prevent misreading of a casual phrase.
Kennan and Brzezinski paired: two named Cold War authorities cited together to establish the complicating context, then firmly separated from the verdict on the invasion.
"Hell of a lot more": the colloquial register used when he wants to signal genuine change rather than incremental learning.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Kevin Rudd, China Matters oration, University of Queensland

"I was in Brisbane last week attending a China Matters oration at the University of Queensland by our ambassador designate to Washington, Kevin Rudd. Unlike a lot of recent discussion, including some from Kevin Rudd himself, this wasn't focused on US-China relations and on geo strategy, but on the internal ideological, social and economic drivers of Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. It was a reminder of what an excellent analyst the newly admitted Dr. Rudd is."

— [00:22:13.360 --> 00:22:59.080]

Allan traveled to Brisbane specifically for this event — a measure of his active engagement with the policy circuit. His assessment of Rudd is precise and slightly pointed: "unlike a lot of recent discussion, including some from Kevin Rudd himself" — the gentle qualification that Rudd's public commentary had been veering toward geostrategy at the expense of the internal drivers. "Newly admitted Dr. Rudd" acknowledges Rudd's recent Oxford doctorate. The recommendation is genuine but the framing distinguishes this particular speech from Rudd's broader commentary.

Note: This episode also features the first recommendation from podcast researcher Walter Colnaghi — Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against US Interests — marking a small evolution in the podcast's format.

Open Questions¶

"One of the reasons I became a diplomat" — does Allan describe other reasons in the corpus? Is there a fuller account of what drew him to the foreign service at ~21 ("to my astonishment, offered a job")?
"Ukraine simply didn't figure" in his Cold War work — can this be reconciled with his Soviet analyst period at ONA in the mid-1980s? Did Soviet Ukraine genuinely not appear in Australian intelligence analysis at that time?
"The most creative use of intelligence for statecraft purposes that I've seen" — on the Biden pre-invasion intelligence disclosure. Does he elaborate elsewhere on this assessment or on the relationship between intelligence and statecraft more broadly?
The UN Charter preamble recited from near-memory — does Allan quote the Charter elsewhere in the corpus? Is this his most explicit engagement with the founding document of the rules-based order?
"End of sermon" — does this phrase or variants appear elsewhere? Is it his standard deflation device after personal conviction?