Source — AITW Ep042 — Covid-19 Update; ASIO Speaks; Morrison Hosts Jokowi & Ardern¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	42
Title	Ep. 42: Covid-19 update; ASIO speaks; Morrison hosts Jokowi & Ardern
Publication date	2020-03-10
Recording date	Friday, 6 March 2020
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	News episode: COVID-19 → ASIO annual threat assessment → bilateral visits (Jokowi, Ardern)

Summary¶

Recorded 6 March 2020, two days before the WHO declared a pandemic. Three-topic news episode. On COVID-19: Allan notes the Biosecurity Act's broad emergency powers (had to look them up), reflects on authoritarianism and public health, observes the government's improved coordination messaging relative to the bushfire response, and flags that the Australia-China economic relationship is about to face a real-time stress test. On ASIO's first annual threat assessment: Allan praises it as a fair portrait of the organisation's culture ("speaking as someone who's observed ASIO for a long time from various perspectives"), notes Dennis Richardson's precedent as the first ASIO head to argue for public accountability, and raises a structural caveat — agencies tasked with identifying risk will never publicly suggest risk is diminishing. Advocates for an annual Foreign Minister statement to Parliament as the DFAT equivalent. On the bilateral visits: Jokowi's parliament speech is measured against SBY's 2010 address ("the best speech I ever saw by a foreign leader to our parliament... he didn't evade the difficulties"); the Ardern deportation dispute is handled with characteristic dry humour (underarm bowling); Australia-NZ described as "one system, two countries." Two reading recommendations: Greenberg's Sandworm (listener suggestion; "even someone as un-techie as me") and Medcalf's Contest for the Indo-Pacific ("essential reading").

Key Quotations¶

"One system, two countries"¶

"I really do think that the way Australia and New Zealand deal with each other is unique in the world. I just can't think of any other two countries that relate in the same way as, in effect, one system, two countries."

— [00:35:31.520 --> 00:35:40.720]

Darren immediately asks whether Allan just invented the phrase; Allan: "I didn't just make it up. I have used it before." The formulation is his own and predates this episode. It is the most economical summary of the Australia-NZ relationship in the corpus — not an alliance, not a friendship, but a single functional system with two sovereign governments. It also explains why the deportation dispute is so anomalous: the normal logic of national interest does not map well onto a relationship that operates like a single system.

"The best speech I ever saw by a foreign leader to our Parliament"¶

"I think the interesting thing about President Widodo's speech was the strength of his language... But I do have to say that I think it was a less accurate portrayal of the real relationship than the speech given by SBY in 2010, which was the last Indonesian leader to address the parliament. I think that was the best speech I ever saw... he didn't evade the difficulties. The most persistent problem in our relationship, he said, is the persistence of age-old stereotypes, misleading, simplistic caricatures that depict the other side in a bad light."

— [00:28:12.890 --> 00:32:19.760]

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono addressed the Australian Parliament in March 2010. Allan was ONA DG at the time (~2007/8–~2013/14). "The best speech I ever saw" — this is a superlative that Allan uses rarely and precisely; cf. "one of the most able public servants" on Maude (Ep041). He values SBY's speech above Jokowi's because it was honest about the gap between warm bilateral rhetoric and public perception. The contrast is analytical, not merely diplomatic: SBY's speech was more accurate, therefore more valuable. The 2024 Lowy Poll finding — 59% of Australians disagree that Indonesia is a democracy — confirms that SBY's 2010 diagnosis of "persistent age-old stereotypes" remains accurate 14 years later.

"Agencies whose job is to identify risk will never want to appear complacent"¶

"One of the inevitable problems with presentations like this in public, is that agencies whose job is to identify risk will never want to appear complacent or to suggest that the risk is diminishing."

— [00:24:55.200 --> 00:24:55.200]

A structural observation about intelligence assessment culture, delivered in passing as a qualification of ASIO's "unprecedented" foreign interference claim. The logic is institutional: an agency measured by the threats it catches cannot credibly testify to a reducing threat environment. This is not cynicism — it is a practitioner's understanding of how the incentive structure shapes public communication. "Speaking as someone who's observed ASIO for a long time from various perspectives" — the perspective here is insider and longitudinal.

"I really would like to see the Foreign Minister deliver to Parliament an annual Australia in the World Statement"¶

"I really would like to see the Foreign Minister deliver to Parliament an annual Australia in the World Statement like that. That sort of broad strategic speech about foreign policy objectives by Ministers leading to a robust parliamentary debate used to be a much more frequent feature of Australian public policy, and I'd certainly welcome its return. Lots of fodder that would give to this podcast."

— [00:25:27.810 --> 00:26:18.370]

Prompted by Darren's mock suggestion that DFAT needs its own annual address to match ASIO's. Allan reframes the idea: not a bureaucratic speech but a ministerial statement to Parliament, as foreign policy debates once were. The advocacy is characteristic — he has argued throughout the corpus for greater investment in and visibility of Australian diplomacy. "Used to be a much more frequent feature" is historical memory, not nostalgia. The closing joke — "lots of fodder for this podcast" — deflects the earnestness of the advocacy without undermining it.

"A real-time experiment is coming"¶

"The economic and political implications of the coronavirus epidemic are really going to test the Australia-China economic relationship in new ways. For all those commentators who we've seen worrying about Australia's over-dependence on the Chinese market, a real-time experiment is coming."

— [00:18:15.980 --> 00:18:56.240]

Recorded 6 March 2020 — the Australia-China trade coercion that would follow in 2020 (barley tariffs, wine tariffs, coal bans, beef suspensions) was not yet visible. Allan does not predict the coercive mechanism; he predicts the test. "Real-time experiment" is an unusually clinical formulation for a situation he goes on to describe with evident concern. The framing is correct: COVID-19 would accelerate the testing of what Allan had previously called "our most important economic relationship" against new stresses.

"Newspaper cartoons of Jacinda at the wicket about to meet Scotty doing some underarm bowling"¶

"The inevitable result in New Zealand was that trusty old stand-by in the trans-Tasman relationship, newspaper cartoons of Dissinder at the wicket about to meet Scotty doing some underarm bowling."

— [00:33:08.640 --> 00:35:31.520]

The 1981 underarm bowling incident — Greg Chappell's instruction to his brother Trevor to bowl underarm in the final over of a one-day match against New Zealand to prevent a last-ball six — is a permanent fixture of trans-Tasman cultural grievance. Allan invokes it without explanation, assuming listener knowledge. The "trusty old stand-by" signals fond exasperation: this is the cartoon shorthand the NZ media reaches for whenever Australia behaves badly toward New Zealand. The observation is characteristic: historical, ironic, affectionate.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: Corroborating

"Speaking as someone who's observed ASIO for a long time from various perspectives" — confirms sustained professional engagement with ASIO across career (DIO/ONA roles gave him regular ASIO contact; PM's office gave him another angle; AIIA yet another). No new information beyond corroboration of the depth of the professional relationship. (Ep042)
"The best speech I ever saw" on SBY's 2010 parliamentary address — implies Allan was present or closely engaged at the time. SBY addressed the Australian Parliament in March 2010; Allan was ONA DG, placing him in active government. The superlative is notable — across a career that saw him in the room for many such events, this one stood out. (Ep042)

Style and Method Evidence¶

Looked it up: Allan explicitly says he "had to look up" the Biosecurity Act language — "I must say I didn't know this off by heart." A rare instance of flagging that a specific piece of knowledge was not already in memory. The epistemic honesty is consistent but this is unusually explicit about the preparation involved.
Structural caveat on intelligence communications: The observation that agencies tasked with identifying risk "will never want to appear complacent" is delivered as a passing aside, not as a major point. This is how Allan integrates institutional knowledge — not as feature analysis but as context that shapes how you should read public statements.
Analytical framing across time: The comparison of Jokowi's 2020 speech to SBY's 2010 speech — finding the earlier one more accurate because it was more honest — is characteristic. He prizes precision over warmth in diplomatic language; a truthful speech is better than a friendly one.
"One system, two countries" as a prior coinage: When Darren asks if it's new, Allan's reply — "I didn't just make it up. I have used it before" — reveals that he has a stock of tested formulations from previous writing and speaking that he deploys in the podcast. These are not improvisations but distillations.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Andy Greenberg, Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin's Most Dangerous Hackers (Doubleday, 2019)

"He writes what's essentially a detective mystery about attribution and motive centering on the Russian cyber attacks on Ukraine, but then broadening out to cover all the dimensions of cyber espionage and cyber warfare, including the American use of Stuxnet... a pacy style that gives even someone as un-techie as me a fair understanding of the process. Cyber is now a permanent feature of statecraft and warfare, and Sandworm is a great way into it for a non-specialist."

Recommended by a podcast listener (who emailed in). Allan thanks the listener, consistent with his established habit of reading and citing audience recommendations (cf. Krugman recommended by listener, Ep008; UPU raised by listener, Ep007). The "un-techie as me" self-description confirms the established portrait: the self-deprecation is now a fixed part of his reading-recommendation formula for technology topics. He specifically values Greenberg's "pacy style" — the writing quality matters alongside the analytical content.

Allan — Rory Medcalf, Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won't Map the Future (La Trobe University Press, 2020)

"If you're interested in the debate about the contest for the Indo-Pacific, including what that contest actually is, then this is essential reading."

Medcalf's book had just been launched (Payne and Wong both spoke at the launch). Allan called Medcalf "probably deserving more credit than anyone else for bringing the framing concept of the Indo-Pacific into Australian strategic discourse" in Ep039. The "essential reading" endorsement is his strongest for a strategic text by an Australian author in the series to date.

Open Questions¶

Allan advocates for an annual Foreign Minister statement to Parliament on Australian foreign policy. Does he return to this advocacy in later episodes, especially under the Albanese government?
"A real-time experiment is coming" on the Australia-China economic relationship. How does Allan respond when the trade coercion materialises later in 2020 (barley, wine, coal, beef)?
SBY's 2010 parliamentary speech as "the best speech I ever saw" by a foreign leader to the Australian Parliament. Is this ever revisited, and does Allan mention other foreign leader speeches he found notable?