Source — AITW Ep020 — Huawei and Decoupling; PNG; Four Elections; New Ambassadors; Bob Hawke¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	20
Title	Ep. 20: Huawei and decoupling; PNG; four elections; new ambassadors; Bob Hawke
Publication date	2019-05-30
Guests	None (Darren and Allan only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Multi-topic; five segments: Huawei/decoupling, PNG, four elections, ambassadors, Bob Hawke tribute; reading/watching close

Summary¶

A wide-ranging episode covering five distinct topics in the fortnight after Morrison's surprise re-election (18 May 2019). The Huawei section features Allan's clearest observation on the double standard at the heart of US-China tech competition. The PNG section adds a biographical fragment: Allan worked as a PNG analyst earlier in his career. The Bob Hawke tribute — prompted by Hawke's death on the eve of the election — is the most personally revealing segment: Allan recalls meeting Hawke as a young diplomat in Singapore, confirms he worked in Hawke's department (PM&C, 1983–1991 window), and produces a warm but precise account of Hawke's foreign policy achievements. The reading segment breaks new ground: Allan's first music recommendation, I Am Easy to Find by The National, with an unusually personal disclosure about the stress of the moment.

Key Quotations¶

Technological decoupling gathering speed¶

"I think it shows how fast the idea of technological decoupling is gathering the speed. We don't know where the end point to any of this will be, but with each iteration of the competition, it's being pushed further to a point of confrontation that has surprised me as I've noted before."

— [00:02:57.050 --> 00:03:16.050]

"Has surprised me" — a candid acknowledgement that events are moving faster than his priors predicted. Allan has said this before (Ep019 on the pace of US-China divergence). The repetition matters: he is updating his model in public, not pretending he foresaw this.

The three questions for diplomatic posts (Huawei)¶

"For the Washington Embassy, you'd be asking what is the US objective? Is this part of a Trump negotiating ploy designed to put pressure on Beijing or is it now emerging as settled US policy? And secondly, what will the Americans expect their allies to do in response?... For the Beijing Embassy, how do the Chinese interpret these moves?... And Finally, for our analysts and officials back here, of course, what does it mean for Australia?"

— [00:03:34.050 --> 00:04:47.810]

A clean three-part analytical structure: Washington intentions → Beijing interpretation → Australian consequences. This is how Allan thinks about any bilateral issue: map the principals, then derive the implications for Australia.

The US double standard on state direction of companies¶

"One of the criticisms the US makes of China is that its private companies follow the instructions of the government in pursuit of broader geo-economic ambitions. But as we can see in this case, China is not alone in having a government which requires its companies to follow its bidding in pursuit of large national aims."

— [00:08:40.050 --> 00:09:11.050]

A pointed observation delivered quietly. Allan does not belabour it or use it to exonerate China — he introduces it as "one small point to note." But the structural equivalence is clear: the US is doing precisely what it accuses China of doing.

PNG is Australia's closest neighbour — not forgotten but ignored¶

"When you and I were first talking about this emerging issue, you said you didn't know much about PNG. I think that's both interesting and important in its own right because it's indicative of the way most Australians, even those who like us are working in this whole area of international relations, now think or don't think about our nearest neighbour. And it is near. I mean, PNG is less than four kilometres distant from the closest Australian territory in the Torres Strait."

— [00:12:12.050 --> 00:14:59.050]

Allan turns a casual admission by Darren into a systemic point: even foreign policy specialists neglect PNG. The four-kilometre distance is arresting and rarely cited.

Allan as PNG analyst (biographical)¶

"I learnt many years ago during a period working as a PNG analyst never to predict political outcomes in PNG. I got a couple of spectacularly wrong. Despite its problems, it remains a messy, vigorous democracy."

— [00:12:12.050 --> 00:14:59.050]

A direct career fragment: Allan worked as a PNG analyst at some point during his career. He got predictions "spectacularly wrong" — a rare admission of past analytical failure, delivered with some self-deprecation. "Messy, vigorous democracy" is a genuine compliment, not a condescension.

Development and security need each other¶

"You simply can't address the geopolitical challenges in the South Pacific without understanding how development works. If the national security specialists had understood development better, we might have had different outcomes in Afghanistan or Iraq."

— [00:16:00.050 --> 00:17:25.130]

The Iraq/Afghanistan example is used to make the structural point: security-only thinking fails in the absence of developmental understanding. This is not a partisan argument but an institutional one about knowledge gaps between portfolios.

Morrison continuity vs. the world's indifference¶

"As we talked about before, the election campaign didn't really yield any information about the coalition's next term agenda in this area, except, I suppose, a continuation of what's going on. But the world doesn't really care about that. And the challenges are already mounting up."

— [00:19:32.050 --> 00:21:26.050]

"The world doesn't really care about that" — characteristically wry. The re-elected government can promise continuity; external events will impose their own agenda regardless.

India: great power vs. big power¶

"If India is to genuinely become a great power rather than simply a big power, he's going to face a very tough economic challenge to keep growth going and the huge labour force employed."

— [00:21:40.890 --> 00:22:56.050]

The great/big power distinction is significant: size and population make a country big; effective institutional and economic performance makes it great. India has the potential for the former but must earn the latter.

Australia's unusual commitment to openness¶

"Both major political parties here still declare in their speeches and party manifestos and the foreign policy white paper and everything we've seen from both sides of politics, a commitment to openness in all its forms, economic and social. And that makes us very unusual internationally at the moment. And we'll have to hope it continues."

— [00:31:01.050 --> 00:31:46.050]

"We'll have to hope it continues" — a quiet worry embedded in a positive observation. Allan notes the bipartisan consensus on openness as a genuine Australian exceptionalism in the current moment, but does not take it for granted.

On political ambassadorial appointments¶

"The really important thing in Washington is that the ambassador is always able to speak with the authority of the Prime Minister and Sinodinos will certainly be able to do that. As for New York, I suppose all you can say is that the government hasn't exactly announced an act of multilateralist agenda. So the absence of a professional like Gary Quinlan there probably won't matter so much."

— [00:33:00.050 --> 00:34:23.050]

Praise for Sinodinos on functional grounds (authority of PM), quiet scorn for the UN appointment by implication. The reference to Gary Quinlan as the benchmark for New York is precise: Quinlan was one of Australia's most distinguished multilateral diplomats.

"I'm inclined to look more cynically to political patronage rather than diplomatic needs for the other appointments, Darren."

— [00:35:08.050 --> 00:35:34.050]

Direct. Allan will name political patronage when he sees it. He does not dress this up.

First meeting with Bob Hawke: airport duty in Singapore¶

"I first met Hawke when I was a young diplomat in Singapore and he was the president of the ACTU. I was on airport duty, which was a perennial curse if you're in Singapore in those days in particular, and I had to take him back to his hotel during a transit stop. We encountered a large group of Australian tourists in the hotel foyer and even now I can remember the immediate effect Hawke had on them and the effect that they had on him. The exchange of energy he got from those sort of interactions was almost physical and this was, as I say, before he became PM."

— [00:36:01.050 --> 00:38:42.050]

A vivid biographical fragment. Allan was a young diplomat in Singapore (dates unclear, but Hawke was ACTU president 1969–1980). "Airport duty, which was a perennial curse" — a glimpse of the unglamorous side of diplomatic postings. The encounter captures something real about Hawke: his physical effect on a crowd, his energy.

Hawke's foreign policy legacy¶

"His foreign policy legacy is very substantial. He really saved the US-Australia alliance from the sort of breach that occurred with New Zealand in those years. He can claim real influence in bringing an end to apartheid in South Africa through the financial sanctions that he persuaded others to introduce. He got APEC going. He had a deep and rewarding relationship with China, tragically derailed for a time after the Tiananmen massacre. He was the first Australian Prime Minister to take the environment seriously. He appointed our first ambassador for the environment and was instrumental in establishing Antarctica as a wilderness area free of mining."

— [00:36:01.050 --> 00:38:42.050]

A precise enumeration: five distinct legacy claims, each with a specific achievement (not vague platitudes). Allan is not eulogising sentimentally; he is performing historical accounting.

Hawke and the public service¶

"I was a public servant in his department at the time. And like all my colleagues, I really appreciated the professionalism with which he engaged the public service. He respected the role of public servants and used them well. And reflecting that, he chose as his chiefs of staff a number of Australia's most impressive diplomats, including Sandy Holway and Dennis Richardson."

— [00:36:01.050 --> 00:38:42.050]

"I was a public servant in his department at the time" — confirms Allan was in PM&C during the Hawke era (1983–1991 window). The mention of Dennis Richardson as one of Hawke's chiefs of staff connects to Ep011, where Richardson and Allan's long friendship was discussed.

The National: first music recommendation¶

"I'd go with something I've been listening to over and over during the past couple of weeks. And that's a great new album by the American group, The National, called I Am Easy to Find. This is a stressful time in the world. So when Matt Berninger, the lead singer, sings, I am just so tired of thinking about everything. I respond, I know how you feel."

— [00:38:51.030 --> 00:39:39.050]

The first music recommendation in the series. Several things worth noting: (1) Allan has been listening "over and over" — sustained engagement, not passing acquaintance; (2) "This is a stressful time in the world" — a rare direct personal disclosure of emotional register; (3) he identifies with Matt Berninger's line about being tired of thinking about everything; (4) despite this, the album leaves him "hopeful in the end that diversity and disintegration are not the same thing" — a characteristically precise distinction drawn from an aesthetic experience.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: Confirmed - Allan was a "young diplomat in Singapore" when Bob Hawke was ACTU president (1969–1980). He drew "airport duty" — the unglamorous task of meeting and chaperoning visiting dignitaries. (Ep020) - Allan worked as a "PNG analyst" at some point during his career — "I learnt many years ago during a period working as a PNG analyst never to predict political outcomes in PNG." (Ep020) - "I was a public servant in his department at the time" — referring to Hawke's period as PM (1983–1991). Confirms Allan worked in PM&C during the Hawke era. This is consistent with the career arc: Hawke era (PM&C) → Keating era (PM's office, confirmed June 1994) → International Division of PM&C → ONA Director-General. (Ep020)

Career arc update: Singapore posting is now confirmed (as a "young diplomat" during Hawke's ACTU presidency, i.e., likely 1970s). PNG analyst work is confirmed (timing unclear). PM&C confirmed during both Hawke and Keating eras.

Style and Method Evidence¶

First music recommendation: I Am Easy to Find by The National. Allan crosses into aesthetic territory for the first time in the series. His reason is personal and disclosed openly: the stress of the international moment, and his identification with the lyric "I am just so tired of thinking about everything." This is unusually candid.
"Diversity and disintegration are not the same thing": drawn from (or inspired by) the album. A precise distinction with political resonance — diversity (which Allan defends) is not the same as fragmentation (which he fears). The aesthetic experience yields an analytical formulation.
Quiet double standard: the Huawei/government direction of companies point is delivered as "one small point to note" — conspicuously under-sold for such a pointed observation.
Hawke tribute: precise, historically grounded, personally warm but not hagiographic. Five specific achievements, not vague praise.
"Spectacularly wrong": rare direct admission of past analytical failure (PNG predictions). Self-deprecating without false modesty.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — I Am Easy to Find by The National (album, 2019)

"This is a stressful time in the world. So when Matt Berninger, the lead singer, sings, I am just so tired of thinking about everything. I respond, I know how you feel. But despite that, the layers and textures and the sheer expansiveness of the album leave you hopeful in the end that diversity and disintegration are not the same thing. And I'm going to cling to that."

First music recommendation in the series. The admission of stress and the identification with the lyric are unusually personal.

(Darren mentions The National's earlier song "Fake Empire" — both hosts know the band.)

Open Questions¶

When was Allan posted to Singapore? Hawke was ACTU president 1969–1980. Allan entered External Affairs ~1969. So the Singapore posting could be any time from 1969 to 1980 — probably the 1970s. This may be his first overseas posting.
When did Allan work as a PNG analyst? This would likely be a Canberra-based role within DFAT or PM&C, not a Port Moresby posting. Timing unclear.
"I was a public servant in his department at the time" (Hawke era) — this confirms PM&C during 1983–1991. Does Allan ever specify which part of PM&C he was in during the Hawke period?
Allan recommends I Am Easy to Find as something he has been listening to "over and over" — this suggests sustained emotional engagement with music, not casual listening. Does he recommend other music later in the series?