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Source — AITW Ep106 — FM's DC Speech; 2+2s; A Polycrisis?

Episode Metadata

Field Value
Episode number 106
Title Ep. 106: FM's DC speech; 2+2s; a polycrisis?
Publication date 2022-12-15
Recording date Wednesday, 14 December 2022
Guests None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present Yes
Format News episode: Penny Wong's DC/Carnegie speech; AUSMIN 2+2 and Australia-Japan 2+2; Albanese foreign policy synthesis; polycrisis concept. Reading segment at close.

Summary

The episode's most revealing moment comes when Darren over-reads Wong's DC speech and Allan deflects — gently, but with practitioner's insider knowledge. He channels Joni Mitchell ("I've looked at speeches from both sides now") and delivers a candid admission: "I can still remember feeling a bit bemused when I later read commentators drawing complex interpretations from language that I knew had been written in a mad rush on the back of an envelope just before a deadline with no deep reflection other than to get the paragraphs to hang together more or less coherently." This is one of the most unusual confessions in the corpus — a senior speech-drafter warning against the reading that practitioners like himself elsewhere strongly encourage.

The analytical highlight is Allan's sustained synthesis of what the Albanese government's foreign policy actually is, delivered across several long turns: identity (First Nations, multicultural); focus (Southeast Asia and Pacific as actors, not fields); tonal change (listening, modesty); continuity (alliance, security). It is the clearest taxonomy in the corpus, and it is delivered in characteristic practitioner's terms — what's changed, what hasn't, what needs another year before a verdict is possible.

Two smaller biographical data points. First, his "word of the year" is statecraft — and he confirms he checks his Shorter Oxford Dictionary to establish its etymology ("since 1642"). Second, recommending Slow Horses on Apple TV, he describes it as "not maybe as acerbic as the Slough House novels by Mick Herron on which it is based" — indicating he has read the source novels. Intelligence fiction as genre; consistent with his ONA background.

Key Quotations

"Written in a mad rush on the back of an envelope" — the practitioner's caution

"If I can channel Joni Mitchell, I've looked at speeches from both sides now, and I can still remember feeling a bit bemused when I later read commentators drawing complex interpretations from language that I knew had been written in a mad rush on the back of an envelope just before a deadline with no deep reflection other than to get the paragraphs to hang together more or less coherently. Now, I'm sure this sort of thing doesn't happen at all in this professional government. But even if there is a danger of sometimes reading too much into speeches, that's really not the problem of the listeners or the readers. Once speeches are out there in public, they become themselves an element of foreign policy and open to interpretation."

— [00:07:14.230 --> 00:08:16.190]

One of the most candid admissions in the corpus. Allan has been on both sides of the speech-reading process — as drafter and as analyst — and he is confessing that the gap between intent and interpretation can be enormous. "Written in a mad rush on the back of an envelope" is his description of speeches he personally drafted; he watched commentators then find architectonic significance in what was an exercise in deadline-driven coherence. The Joni Mitchell allusion is not decorative — he is genuinely drawing on it to frame the epistemological point: he knows speeches from both sides. The pivot is equally important: even when over-reading is a risk, "that's not the problem of the listeners." Once uttered, speeches become constitutive. The practitioner's caution and the analyst's permission are both his, and he holds them simultaneously.

The Albanese foreign policy synthesis

"I think the answer now is that we can see the shape of such a foreign policy and it begins with identity... The second change we've seen is one of focus... The key institutions of both regions, ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum, are much more prominent in the way the government thinks about its diplomacy... Continuity has been clearest in areas of the alliance and security... Third has been a tonal change. Every statement almost by every minister dealing with the outside world has included some variation on the theme that we are listening respectfully."

— [00:20:56.050 --> 00:25:34.230]

The most sustained synthesis of Australian foreign policy in the corpus — four elements: identity, focus, continuity, tone. The taxonomy is the practitioner's: he tracks what's changed, what hasn't, what's new in emphasis and what's new in substance. On China: "professional diplomacy is operating at both ends, and that's better than we had before" — the practitioner's assessment of machinery, not outcomes. "I frankly think we need another 12 months before we can say with confidence that there is space to move forward" is his epistemic discipline in action: enough evidence for a shape, not enough for a verdict.

"Statecraft" — word of the year, with etymology

"My current favourite word of the year, though, is statecraft. The word's been around since 1642, according to my shorter Oxford dictionary. But I can't remember seeing it in quite as many speeches and commentaries on Australian public policy as we've seen this year."

— [00:31:59.230 --> 00:32:51.230]

He checks the Shorter Oxford Dictionary to establish the etymology before naming his word. Last year's word was "sovereignty." The word-of-the-year game is a recurring episode feature — light in manner, serious in substance; it is a way of tracking the vocabulary of Australian statecraft as a cultural artefact. His nomination of statecraft is both observational (it has proliferated) and approving: the word captures the multidimensional quality of the foreign policy challenge he has been describing across these episodes. "It's been around since 1642" is not a trivial detail — he is placing the contemporary proliferation in a long historical context.

The risk taxonomy — compressed and telegraphic

"Risks to coherence, the direction of American policy as we get closer to the presidential elections. Risks to stability, the way the Ukraine war develops. Contradictions to be resolved, the difficulty of aligning Australian policy with that of the major ASEANs. Random shocks, Melanesia. Not that it will shock, but that it could."

— [00:25:58.230 --> 00:26:26.230]

A taxonomy compressed to its minimum. Four categories (coherence, stability, contradictions, random shocks), each with one entry. The final line — "Not that it will shock, but that it could" — is characteristically compressed irony: Melanesia is the thing he is not predicting will be a shock, while making clear that it could be. The whole passage is delivered "off the top of my head," which is itself revealing: the categories of risk are so fluent and organised that he can produce the taxonomy without preparation. This is the analyst's disciplined imagination at work.

Biographical Fragments

New

  1. "On the back of an envelope" — insider confession on speech drafting — "written in a mad rush on the back of an envelope just before a deadline with no deep reflection other than to get the paragraphs to hang together more or less coherently." The most candid practitioner's disclosure on the gap between drafting intent and analytical interpretation. (Ep106)

  2. Joni Mitchell invoked as a rhetorical touchstone — "if I can channel Joni Mitchell... I've looked at speeches from both sides now." Indicates genuine familiarity with the song's epistemological logic, not just a passing allusion. (Ep106)

  3. Shorter Oxford Dictionary consulted for etymology — checks "statecraft" to confirm "since 1642." A physical reference book he uses actively. (Ep106)

  4. Reads Mick Herron's Slough House novels — recommends Slow Horses (Apple TV) but notes it is "not maybe as acerbic as the Slough House novels... on which it is based." Indicates he has read the source novels; intelligence fiction as genre. (Ep106)

Reinforcing

  1. Word-of-the-year game — recurring feature; 2022 = statecraft, 2021 = sovereignty. Tracks vocabulary as a cultural artefact of the foreign policy environment. (Ep106)

  2. Declaratory policy philosophy: "Once speeches are out there in public, they become themselves an element of foreign policy and open to interpretation." Consistent with Ep102 ("once Ministers have uttered the words, that's it"). (Ep106)

  3. Gareth Evans as activist FM predecessor — paired with Penny Wong as a comparison across very different eras of what activist foreign policy means. Consistent with his deep knowledge of Australian foreign policy history. (Ep106)

Style and Method Evidence

  • "If I can channel Joni Mitchell": cultural allusion deployed to make an epistemological point — not decoration but precision.
  • "Off the top of my head": the risk taxonomy delivered without preparation; signals the analyst's disciplined fluency.
  • "Not that it will shock, but that it could": compressed irony as a way of flagging a risk without over-stating it.
  • "It's a reflection, no doubt": the causal qualifier that signals association rather than certainty.
  • "After all those gentle digs I've had at you": generous and warm in acknowledging Darren's model-building vindication.

Reading, Listening and Watching

Allan — Catherine Murphy/Penny Wong (Guardian podcast); Rory Medcalf/Gareth Evans (ANU National Security podcast); Slow Horses Season 2 (Apple TV)

"They give an interesting insight, I think, into what an activist foreign policy can mean at two very different times in world history... The new season of Slow Horses is running on Apple. It's not maybe as acerbic as the Slough House novels by Mick Herron on which it is based, but absolutely perfect for a lazy summer binge watch."

— [00:33:18.230 --> 00:34:11.810]

The Wong/Evans pairing is characteristic: he recommends them together precisely because the contrast between their eras illuminates what activist foreign policy means differently across time. The Slow Horses recommendation confirms he has read Herron's novels — the assessment ("not as acerbic") is a reader's comparison, not a non-reader's guess. Intelligence fiction as a genre sits naturally with his ONA background. "Absolutely perfect for a lazy summer binge watch" is more enthusiastic than his usual measured recommendations.

Open Questions

  1. The back-of-envelope confession — does Allan describe the specific conditions of speech drafting in the Keating PMO more directly elsewhere? Is there another episode where he describes the experience of drafting under deadline?
  2. Joni Mitchell — does she appear elsewhere in the corpus? Is this the only pop culture reference that doubles as an epistemological argument?
  3. The word-of-the-year game — does it appear in earlier episodes? How far back does the tradition go?
  4. The Slough House novels — does Mick Herron or intelligence fiction appear elsewhere in Allan's reading recommendations?
  5. "Another 12 months before we can say with confidence" on China — does Allan return to this verdict in 2023? Does he conclude that space did or did not open?