Source — AITW Ep043 — The Consequences of Covid-19¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	43
Title	Ep. 43: The consequences of Covid-19
Publication date	2020-03-28
Recording date	Thursday, 26 March 2020
Guests	None (Allan and Darren only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Speculative analysis — predicting COVID-19's consequences for the world and for Australia

Summary¶

Recorded two weeks after WHO declared the pandemic. A forward-looking episode: what will the world look like after COVID-19? Allan and Darren are explicit that their predictions may be wrong and ask listeners to be kind. Allan's framework for the COVID balance of power: "the battle is between the competent and the incompetent" — Singapore and Seoul competent, Trump administration not. On the rules-based order: Darren's image of "the poor old RBO propped up in the nursing home" prompts Allan to propose a "new formulation of multilateralism" that is universal, non-consensus-constrained, and possibly virtual. On sovereignty: goes both ways — a dream for sovereignty-maximisers, but also proof that climate and pandemic can't be addressed nationally. On state expansion: "income tax during the war" — emergency measures that persist. On Australia's response: a dense policy prescription (voice with Washington and Beijing; repurpose the PM's institutions audit; prepare Indonesia/India for financial shock; commission pandemic reviews; "the easy days of China trade are over"). On ISIS telling operatives to stay away from Europe during the crisis: "one way in which we can all be a bit more relaxed." Reading recommendation: Hilary Mantel's The Mirror and the Light — with the disclosure that he wrote on the Lowy Interpreter in 2009 that Wolf Hall was "the best book I'd ever read about politics, not Tudor politics, but politics full stop."

Key Quotations¶

"The battle is between the competent and the incompetent"¶

"It seems to me that the battle is between the competent and the incompetent. So we've got sort of Singapore and Seoul falling into the competent camp and the Trump administration so far into the incompetent."

— [00:02:02.720 --> 00:03:50.000]

A deliberate reframing of the "authoritarian vs. democratic" narrative that Morrison was promoting. Allan's frame cuts across the systems question: competent democracies (Singapore, South Korea) outperform incompetent ones (US under Trump); the question of regime type is secondary to governance capacity. He names Trump's administration "incompetent" directly — no hedging. One of the clearest assessments of US mismanagement in the corpus, delivered flatly, not dramatically.

"The poor old RBO propped up in the nursing home"¶

[Darren]: "...our old dear friend, the rules-based order, which unfortunately is right in the high-risk group for Covid-19, mid-70s in age, underlying health problems. Is there a silver lining here or is all the news grim?" Allan: "That's such a great image, Darren, the poor old RBO propped up in the nursing home and unable to receive visitors."

— [00:10:14.780 --> 00:11:43.940]

Allan immediately adopts and extends Darren's image — "unable to receive visitors" adds the isolation dimension. This is one of the most vivid collaborative moments in the corpus: Darren sets up the metaphor; Allan confirms it and adds the coda. The echo of "Poor old bloody rules-based order" from Ep031 is audible. He then pivots: the silver lining might be that the crisis finally forces rethinking of what multilateralism looks like for the mid-21st century.

"Like income tax during the war"¶

Darren: "...it's hard to see how that won't survive in some form into the longer term... governments will face more pressure to onshore more and more industries incrementally." Allan: "Like income tax during the war. Can you say a bit more?"

— [00:15:21.360 --> 00:15:42.120]

A five-word historical analogy dropped into a pause in Darren's argument. Income tax was introduced federally in Australia as a wartime emergency measure and has never left. The analogy is precise: emergency fiscal interventions become permanent structural features. Allan deploys it as a one-line confirmation and then invites Darren to continue — he is not hijacking the argument but anchoring it in historical precedent, then stepping back. The technique is characteristic: a single historical fact that does more work than a paragraph of argument.

"I can't think of a global crisis over the past 50 years to which Washington has offered the international community so little"¶

"It's hard to think of a global crisis. Well, I can't think of a global crisis over the past 50 years to which Washington has offered the international community so little response."

— [00:20:32.240 --> 00:25:07.440]

One of the strongest criticisms of US leadership in the corpus. "Over the past 50 years" — Allan is comparing across crises he has lived through professionally: oil shocks, Cold War, Gulf War, 9/11, GFC. He has seen Washington lead from the front in all of them. COVID-19 under Trump is a qualitative departure. The correction — "Well, I can't think" — is characteristic epistemic honesty: he first says "it's hard to think," then commits: he actually cannot think of one. This is not rhetoric; it is the result of a mental scan.

"I wrote on the Lowy Interpreter that it was the best book I'd ever read about politics, not Tudor politics, but politics full stop"¶

"When the first book in this series, Wolf Hall, came out in 2009, I wrote on the Lowy Interpreter that it was the best book I'd ever read about politics, not Tudor politics, but politics full stop."

— [00:29:03.880 --> 00:30:34.320]

Two biographical disclosures in one sentence: (1) he was writing for the Lowy Interpreter when Wolf Hall was published in 2009 — a new data point for his writing career and possibly for the Lowy→ONA career transition timing; (2) Wolf Hall was, in 2009, the best book he had ever read about politics. This supersedes every other book recommendation in the corpus — including the Packer "changed my understanding" category (Ep040). He then applies it directly to professional practice: "the best evocation of the talents required by a political staffer" — drawing on his own experience as Keating's international advisor and his intelligence work (Cromwell as "a superb intelligence manager and assessor," comparing him to George Smiley in Le Carré).

"If any of our younger listeners aspire to work in Parliament House, you won't find anywhere a better evocation of the talents required by a political staffer than Cromwell in his relationship with Henry"¶

"If any of our younger listeners aspire to work in Parliament House, you won't find anywhere a better evocation of the talents required by a political staffer than Cromwell in his relationship with Henry, so it's a go-to book for those purposes."

— [00:29:03.880 --> 00:30:34.320]

Allan reads the Mantel trilogy as a practical manual for political staff work. The prescription is specific and directed at a particular audience. He reads fiction for its analytical content — what does it reveal about how power actually works, how advisors manage upward, how intelligence is assessed? The parallel to his own career as Keating's international advisor — "the talents required by a political staffer" — is explicit. The only other "bureaucratic hero" he names is George Smiley in Le Carré (the transcript has "Smalley" — a transcription error for "Smiley"): confirmation that he reads spy fiction professionally, not recreationally.

"I'm clinging with you Darren"¶

Darren: "...you cling to those new data points as a way of trying to get some optimism into your daily existence." Allan: "I'm clinging with you Darren."

— [00:32:20.480 --> 00:32:21.920]

One sentence, no elaboration. The warmth in it is real. It closes the episode — the last thing said before the outro. Across the corpus, Allan's emotional register is compressed; this is as direct as he gets about shared vulnerability. The image is literal (clinging to positive data points about COVID) and figuratively about solidarity. Characteristic: says the minimum necessary for full effect.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: New — Lowy Interpreter writing dated to 2009

"When the first book in this series, Wolf Hall, came out in 2009, I wrote on the Lowy Interpreter that it was the best book I'd ever read about politics" — confirms Allan was writing for the Lowy Interpreter at the time of Wolf Hall's publication (UK publication: September 2019; Australian availability: shortly after). This is a new data point. He may have been at Lowy in 2009 (if the transition to ONA came slightly later than ~2007/8) or may have continued contributing to the Interpreter after moving to ONA, as the institute's founder. The latter is unusual for a serving intelligence DG but not impossible given his role as Lowy's founder. Either way, this piece (if locatable in the Lowy Interpreter archive) would be a significant primary source. (Ep043)
George Smiley (transcript: "George Smalley") as a "bureaucratic hero in literature" — confirms Le Carré's George Smiley as a professional touchstone. Allan reads spy fiction with professional identification, not as entertainment: Smiley as "superb intelligence manager and assessor" reflects his own formation as an intelligence assessor and manager. (Ep043 — corroborates Ep013 Spy and the Traitor recommendation)

Style and Method Evidence¶

Adopting and extending Darren's metaphor: Allan's immediate "that's such a great image... the poor old RBO propped up in the nursing home and unable to receive visitors" shows him as a collaborator in the podcast's analytical language. He does not merely use Darren's metaphor; he adds the decisive detail ("unable to receive visitors") that makes it complete.
The five-word historical analogy: "Like income tax during the war" — inserted into a pause in Darren's sentence, then immediately inviting Darren to continue. Allan does not develop the analogy; he trusts it to land and returns the floor. This is advanced conversational technique: a single historical fact deployed as a structural confirmation.
The mental scan: "I can't think of a global crisis over the past 50 years..." — not rhetoric but an actual search of memory across five decades of professional engagement with Washington's role in international crises. The correction ("Well, I can't think") signals it is genuine.
Precision about reading categories: Wolf Hall is "the best book I'd ever read about politics, not Tudor politics, but politics full stop" — the precision of the qualifier ("not Tudor politics, but politics full stop") is characteristic. He is claiming that the book's value is transferable across historical settings, not confined to the Tudor period.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Hilary Mantel, The Mirror and the Light (Fourth Estate, 2020) + Wolf Hall trilogy overall

"When the first book in this series, Wolf Hall, came out in 2009, I wrote on the Lowy Interpreter that it was the best book I'd ever read about politics, not Tudor politics, but politics full stop. If any of our younger listeners aspire to work in Parliament House, you won't find anywhere a better evocation of the talents required by a political staffer than Cromwell in his relationship with Henry... For those of us who believe in the work of public service, I can't think of many bureaucratic heroes in literature. I mean, maybe George Smiley in Le Carré's work, but Thomas Cromwell, flawed as he is, is one of them, and like Smiley, he's also a superb intelligence manager and assessor."

Allan's highest fiction recommendation in the corpus — exceeding even the Krastev/Holmes "changed my understanding" category, which applied to non-fiction. He called Wolf Hall in 2009 "the best book I'd ever read about politics, full stop." He applies the trilogy directly to professional practice: political staff management, intelligence assessment, bureaucratic survival. The recommendation of The Mirror and the Light (the third volume, published March 2020) is made with the full weight of the eleven-year relationship with the earlier books behind it. His prediction about a third Booker Prize — "if Mantel doesn't get her third Booker Prize for this, she's been robbed" — proved correct: Mantel did not win the Booker for this volume, though she won it twice for the first two.

Note: The Lowy Interpreter piece on Wolf Hall (2009) is a specific recoverable text — search the Lowy Interpreter archive for Allan Gyngell + Wolf Hall.

Open Questions¶

The Lowy Interpreter Wolf Hall piece from 2009 — is it locatable in the archive? It would be a significant primary source for Allan's political thinking in that year and possibly clarify the Lowy→ONA transition timing.
Allan's prediction: "if Mantel doesn't get her third Booker Prize for this, she's been robbed." The Mirror and the Light was not shortlisted for the Booker 2020. Does he revisit this in later episodes?
"The easy days [of China trade] are over" — recorded 26 March 2020, before the trade coercive measures began. When the barley tariffs, wine embargoes, and coal bans arrive in 2020, how does Allan respond?
Allan's COVID policy prescription — a dense paragraph of specific recommendations. How many of them are actually implemented in the months that follow?