Source — AITW Ep023 — Morrison's Asialink-Bloomberg Speech; Lowy Poll; G20¶

Episode Metadata¶

Field	Value
Episode number	23
Title	Ep. 23: Morrison's Asialink-Bloomberg speech; Lowy Poll; G20
Publication date	2019-07-08
Guests	None (Darren and Allan only)
Allan present	Yes
Format	Three-topic: Morrison speech, Lowy Poll, G20; reading segment

Summary¶

Three topics of sustained quality. The Morrison speech analysis produces some of Allan's sharpest speech-craft commentary and two major biographical revelations: he was Keating's international advisor and drafted Keating's foreign policy speeches himself, and he was the founding Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and creator of the Lowy Poll. The Lowy Poll discussion is characteristically data-grounded. The G20 section closes with Allan's one-word verdict on the institution's future: "Bleak." The reading segment produces a sharp exchange on Hugh White's How to Defend Australia and Darren's fluid/crystallised intelligence piece — the latter drawing Allan's best aside of the episode.

Key Quotations¶

How foreign policy speeches are made — and Keating's process¶

"While I was working in Paul Keating's office as his international advisor, I would draft all the foreign policy speeches myself because I like writing and I didn't trust anyone else to do it. But I'd always hand them over in the end to his chief speech writer, who was the extraordinary [Don Watson]. I mean, he might make only a handful of stylistic changes, but all of them would remind me of why Don was a much greater writer than I'll ever be."

— [00:04:01.680 --> 00:06:29.920]

Multiple revelations: (1) Allan was Keating's international advisor — the most precise job title yet for his PM's office role; (2) he drafted all the foreign policy speeches himself — confirms he is a writer who values the craft; (3) Don Watson (Keating's legendary chief speech writer, author of Recollections of a Bleeding Heart) was his collaborator and editorial superior; (4) "I didn't trust anyone else to do it" — proprietary about the foreign policy material; (5) self-deprecating on his writing relative to Watson's.

"Great and powerful friends" extended to China¶

"The words are great and powerful friends. This is one of the best known phrases in Australian foreign policy. It was used by Robert Menzies in the 1950s and 60s. And he was describing Britain and the United States... Robert would probably be rolling in his grave to think of it being applied as it is here to China."

— [00:07:14.920 --> 00:08:49.020]

Allan deploys historical memory as analytical tool: tracing a phrase from Menzies to Morrison to show how much the reference frame has changed. The Menzies phrase was about security dependence; Morrison's application to China is about economic/diplomatic recognition. The irony of using a security-alliance phrase for Australia's largest trading partner is made explicit.

Rules-based order as defence of sovereignty — conceptually interesting¶

"I thought this was the most conceptually interesting and even innovative part of the speech. I hadn't seen the sort of framing of the rules-based order as a necessary defence of sovereignty in a speech by an Australian politician before."

— [00:13:07.920 --> 00:15:02.100]

Allan credits Morrison for a genuine conceptual move — framing the RBIO not as a constraint on sovereignty (the standard IR critique) but as its precondition. He distinguishes innovation from agreement: he notes Morrison "tends to over-egg the role of the United States" but credits the framing regardless.

Over-egging the US role — and the Chinese reaction¶

"I think the PM tends to over-egg the role of the United States in establishing post-war prosperity... But if I were the Chinese, I think I'd be slightly irritated to be told that China's emergence as a significant power was, and I'm quoting him, made possible by the active and strategic engagement of the United States. I might have thought that I had something to do with it myself."

— [00:13:07.920 --> 00:15:02.100]

Allan reads the speech from a Chinese perspective. "I might have thought that I had something to do with it myself" — understated, but the point is clear: the formulation is diplomatically counterproductive with the very audience it is trying to address.

The "squib" at the end¶

"After talking so much as he did, not so much in this speech, but we've seen it often, the need to avoid binary divisions... What we ended with here is, in fact, a binary division. I read it with increasing enthusiasm and then got to the last page and discovered, 'on another occasion, I will address these issues from the perspective of our strategic security and defence interests.' Well, that's a pretty important proviso, and it really does avoid our central dilemma."

— [00:17:34.920 --> 00:18:28.920]

"I read it with increasing enthusiasm and then got to the last page" — the structure of this sentence mirrors the structure of the speech's failure: the reader is brought along and then let down. "Squibbed it" is Australian slang for backing down at the crucial moment. Allan had flagged the squib at the top and returns to it precisely here.

Founding the Lowy Poll — and why¶

"One of the first things I did when setting up the Lowy Institute was to ask Frank Lowy to spend some of his generous bequest on establishing an annual poll designed to find out just what Australians thought about foreign policy and international relations. I'd been frustrated throughout my career by reading pundits and commentators pronouncing on what Australians thought about various international issues with, for the most part, zero data apart from their own prejudices to back them up."

— [00:18:57.920 --> 00:20:58.920]

Founding motivation: frustration with data-free commentary. This is the origin of the Lowy Poll in Allan's own words. The intellectual driver is the same as throughout the corpus: prefer evidence to assertion.

The Japan question — what the poll was built to answer¶

"It's always fascinated me how Australia's views of Japan have changed over time. You know, during my childhood, I can recall the very deep anger and hostility you could still see in my parents' generation to Japan after the war. And now we're at a place where Australians feel more warmly about Japan than any other Asian state. So when did that happen and why? And I just didn't think we had enough data to answer that."

— [00:18:57.920 --> 00:20:58.920]

The Japan example is the original animating question for the poll — and a personal one. Allan grew up observing his parents' generation's hostility to Japan and watched the transformation unfold over his lifetime. This is characteristic: the personal and historical are not separate for him.

Confidence in Trump lower than in Xi Jinping¶

"Confidence in Donald Trump reaches new levels, I think, when people are asked about their confidence in Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs. They have less confidence in him than they do in Xi Jinping."

— [00:22:44.920 --> 00:26:10.920]

Delivered flatly as a data point, not as polemic. The comparison is striking in itself.

Australians hate investment generally¶

"The investment doesn't surprise me greatly. Australians hate investment anyway. And that's been true no matter where it's come from, Japan or wherever."

— [00:22:44.920 --> 00:26:10.920]

Characteristic deflation: what looks like a China-specific concern about investment is actually a persistent Australian pattern. He uses historical comparison (Japan) to contextualise current attitude.

G20: "Bleak"¶

"Well, bleak, bleak, in one word."

— [00:33:06.900 --> 00:33:24.920]

Asked for his assessment of the G20's future under Saudi Arabia, Italy, and India, Allan uses "bleak" twice. Repetition signals resignation rather than mere pessimism. The word is unadorned.

On Hugh White: "He won't let you look away"¶

"The critical thing about Hugh's writing is that he won't let you look away. You have to either agree with him or else work out carefully for yourself the reasons you don't. And I think the book, in addition to being a terrifically good read, is hard thinking of the sort Australia badly needs now, whether you agree with all the conclusions or not."

— [00:33:34.920 --> 00:34:52.920]

A precise account of what makes White's work valuable even when you disagree with it. Allan is not endorsing the conclusions; he is endorsing the intellectual discipline the book demands of its reader. "Hard thinking of the sort Australia badly needs now" — a broader claim about the quality of Australian strategic debate.

"Crystallised and not calcified"¶

"Well, so long as it's crystallised and not calcified."

— [00:35:57.920 --> 00:36:02.920]

Response to Darren's recommendation of an Arthur Brooks piece on fluid vs crystallised intelligence and professional decline. Six words, perfectly timed. The distinction is self-aware: Allan knows he is in the "crystallised intelligence" category, and the joke acknowledges the risk of that becoming rigidity. Characteristic irony about ageing and intellect.

Biographical Fragments¶

Evidence type: Confirmed — MAJOR DISCOVERIES

Allan was Keating's international advisor — the precise job title, directly stated: "While I was working in Paul Keating's office as his international advisor." (Ep023)
Allan drafted Keating's foreign policy speeches — "I would draft all the foreign policy speeches myself because I like writing and I didn't trust anyone else to do it." He then handed them to Don Watson for stylistic revision. (Ep023)
Allan was the founding Executive Director of the Lowy Institute — Darren: "you were the founding Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and you were responsible for creating the Lowy Poll." Allan confirms this, describing the founding of the poll in first person. (Ep023)
Allan asked Frank Lowy directly to fund the poll — "One of the first things I did when setting up the Lowy Institute was to ask Frank Lowy to spend some of his generous bequest on establishing an annual poll." (Ep023)
Career gap filled: The Lowy Institute was founded in 2003. Allan "wasn't working for the government in the late 1990s" (Ep022). The founding Executive Director role at Lowy fills the gap between the Keating government (lost March 1996) and his later return to senior government service (ONA Director-General, confirmed Ep019). His period outside government likely ran ~1996–early 2000s, during which he established the Lowy Institute, and he returned to government as ONA DG thereafter.

Personal/Cultural - Allan's childhood memory: his parents' generation still felt "very deep anger and hostility" toward Japan after the war. He watched this transform over his lifetime into Japan becoming the most warmly regarded Asian state in Australia. (Ep023) - Allan writes: "I like writing" — a direct personal disclosure about intellectual pleasure. (Ep023) - "Don was a much greater writer than I'll ever be" — self-deprecating about his writing relative to Don Watson's. (Ep023)

Style and Method Evidence¶

Speech-craft literacy: Allan reads Morrison's speech with precision — tracking the word count on "rules-based" vs "sovereign," identifying the conceptual innovation in the sovereignty framing, naming the squib at the end. He treats political speeches as documents to be read closely, not just summarised.
Historical phrase-tracking: "Great and powerful friends" traced from Menzies through to Morrison; the shift in referent reveals how much the world has changed.
Data discipline: the Lowy Poll was created precisely to replace assertion with evidence. Allan applies this same standard throughout the series.
"Crystallised and not calcified": one of the best lines in the series — six words, self-aware, perfectly timed, analytically sharp.
"He won't let you look away": an unusual way to recommend a book; it focuses on what the book demands of the reader rather than what the reader receives from it. This reveals something about Allan's standard for intellectual seriousness.

Reading, Listening and Watching¶

Allan — Hugh White, How to Defend Australia (La Trobe University Press, 2019)

"He won't let you look away. You have to either agree with him or else work out carefully for yourself the reasons you don't... hard thinking of the sort Australia badly needs now, whether you agree with all the conclusions or not."

Allan notes White's argument responds to Menzies' original question about self-defence. He does not disclose whether he agrees with White's conclusions — he recommends the intellectual discipline the book imposes.

Open Questions¶

When exactly did Allan become founding Executive Director of the Lowy Institute? The Lowy Institute was established in 2003. Did he leave immediately after the Keating government fell (1996) to work on setting it up, or was there another period in between?
When did he leave the Lowy Institute for the ONA Director-General role? This would date his return to government service.
Don Watson: Allan says "Don was a much greater writer than I'll ever be." This is one of the most direct expressions of literary admiration in the series. Does he refer to Watson again in later episodes?
Allan's childhood memory of anti-Japan sentiment in his parents' generation — what period is this? He joined External Affairs ~1969 at ~21, placing his birth ~1948. His "childhood" observation of post-war hostility would be in the 1950s–60s.