Source — AITW Ep060 — US Election Rapid Reactions¶
Episode Metadata¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Episode number | 60 |
| Title | US election rapid reactions |
| Publication date | 2020-11-06 |
| Recording date | Thursday, 5 November 2020 |
| Guests | None — Allan and Darren only |
| Allan present | Yes |
| Format | Emergency/rapid reaction episode — no reading segment |
Summary¶
Emergency episode recorded Thursday 5 November 2020, with Michigan called for Biden but the presidency not yet formally declared. Allan and Darren react to the election results. Key themes: relief at likely Biden victory; "a damned close run thing"; systemic resilience of US electoral machinery; the failure of the polls again; Trump's base (African-American and Hispanic voters included) proving harder to shift than expected; what Biden means for Australia — better for alliance management, but "America first with better administration and sharper aims" remains the structural reality; the durability of Trumpism without Trump; both parties' internal civil wars ahead. Allan recommends Sam Harris's eight-minute podcast on the theology of Trump support. Personal disclosure: switched between State of Origin and CNN on election night and "ended the night a bit more optimistic."
No reading/watching/listening segment; no biographical fragments beyond election-night viewing habits.
Key Quotations¶
"There hasn't been a Trump administration. There's just been a Trump."¶
"We talk about a Trump administration, but in fact, there hasn't been a Trump administration. There's just been a Trump. The people in the intervening positions have been there for such a short period of time, dependent so much on the sort of moods and will of the president for their position that it's been like a European, you know, 17th century court rather than an administration."
— [00:12:26.070 --> 00:16:47.550]
One of the more compressed analytical verdicts in the corpus. The first sentence is memorable and immediately useful as a characterisation; the second explains why. The 17th-century court comparison is not decorative — it is precise: personal loyalty to the monarch over institutional function, rapid turnover of courtiers, no continuity of policy independent of the royal will. Allan then uses it to predict the Biden correction: "people at all levels of government to pursue our interests" — the systematic machinery of an actual administration, rather than a court.
"America first with better administration and sharper aims"¶
"Biden's foreign policy for the middle class is really just America first with better administration and sharper aims. But the same thing. Biden has made it absolutely clear that he knows that this has all got to work for a domestic constituency."
— [00:12:26.070 --> 00:16:47.550]
The most important analytical claim in the episode for long-term Australian foreign policy. Allan is resisting the temptation — which he notes others will succumb to — of treating Biden as a restoration of the pre-Trump world. The structural forces that produced Trump (domestic constituency primacy, economic nationalism) are intact; Biden will manage them more competently but not reverse them. "America first with better administration and sharper aims" is a phrase that could apply equally to every post-WWII president — Allan is saying Biden is continuous with that underlying structure, not an exception to it.
"Once Trumped, twice shy"¶
"Once Trumped, twice shy. And the world is going to remember that this can happen."
— [00:17:35.550 --> 00:18:33.550]
A one-sentence structural claim about the long-term damage to US credibility. The proverbial form ("once bitten, twice shy") recast with a proper noun — characteristic wit with analytical weight underneath. The point is that even a successful Biden presidency cannot fully restore trust, because the world now knows Trump is a possible outcome of US democracy. Darren had just raised the Iran nuclear deal credibility problem; this is Allan's summary formulation.
"A damned close run thing"¶
"As the Duke of Wellington was reported to have said after the Battle of Waterloo, it was a damned close run thing, and too damned close for me."
— [00:02:48.010 --> 00:03:29.830]
Allan's opening line. The Wellington quotation is well-chosen (the Duke's actual words were "the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life") — Allan qualifies it with "was reported to have said," characteristic epistemic honesty about historical quotation. Then he personalises it: "too damned close for me." Vulnerable in a way he is not usually.
"I ended up switching between the State of Origin and CNN"¶
"I didn't have, I have to confess, I didn't have the emotional resilience to sit there for hours yesterday afternoon. And although we in Australia are in a very good position to observe all of this, you know, I ended up switching between the State of Origin and CNN and ended the night sort of a bit more optimistic than I'd been."
— [00:02:48.010 --> 00:03:29.830]
A small, vivid personal detail: Allan watched election night by alternating between rugby league (NRL State of Origin) and CNN — unable to sustain the anxiety of continuous election coverage. The candour ("I didn't have the emotional resilience") is unusual. He does not pretend to the studied calm he usually projects. The stakes were too high.
Biographical Fragments¶
No new biographical fragments of note in this episode.
Style and Method Evidence¶
- Structural continuity argument (Biden): Allan resists the restoration narrative. Biden is "America first with better administration and sharper aims" — same underlying structure, better operated. He makes this argument against the implied optimism of the moment, which is characteristic: his job is to identify what does not change.
- Wellington quotation qualified: "Was reported to have said" — he does not present the quotation as exact, signalling epistemic care even in a throwaway opening line.
- Sam Harris recommendation: Allan calls it "an unusually useful way of thinking about Trump voters" — the "unusually" is his precision: not just useful, but unusually so. He found it worth sharing despite (or because of?) finding Harris's subject "obnoxious and repugnant in almost every way."
- "I'm looking forward to the next four years of podcasts more than I was at certain periods last night": The closing line. Relief expressed through the frame of the podcast project rather than world affairs — a micro-disclosure of how much the project means to him.
Reading / Listening Segment¶
No reading segment this episode.
Allan shares (during discussion): Sam Harris — eight-minute podcast episode (from the Making Sense / Waking Up podcast) on what motivates Trump supporters. Allan: "I found it an unusually useful way of thinking about Trump voters. Trump is the validator of the lives of so many people." Harris's interpretation is described as "theological" — Trump as a figure who gives his supporters permission to feel dignity without shame, because he is "so obviously like them himself, only worse." [Note: Darren puts link in show notes.]
Open Questions¶
- "Lael Brainard in Treasury, well known to Australia": Allan says this of a Biden appointee — implying he has personal or professional knowledge of Brainard from his Washington/ONA period. When did he meet her? Is this traceable in public records?
- State of Origin: Which match was this? NRL State of Origin 2020 ran late (COVID delay). Confirms Allan is a rugby league follower, at least as election-night comfort viewing.