Source — AITW Ep070 — Alaska; "Competitive Co-existence" & Duelling Sanctions; Quad Outcomes; OECD Cormann¶
Episode Metadata¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Episode number | 70 |
| Title | Alaska, "competitive co-existence" & duelling sanctions; Quad outcomes; OECD Cormann |
| Publication date | 2021-03-29 |
| Recording date | Saturday, 27 March 2021 ("our 70th episode — a nice milestone") |
| Guests | None — Allan and Darren only |
| Allan present | Yes |
| Format | Regular news episode — four items plus reading segment |
Summary¶
Four items: (1) The Anchorage Alaska meeting — first high-level US-China talks under Biden; (2) duelling sanctions over Xinjiang — EU/US/UK/Canada sanctions on Chinese officials, China's retaliatory sanctions on European parliamentarians and academics; (3) Quad outcomes from the March 12 leaders' meeting; (4) Matthias Cormann's election as OECD Secretary-General. Reading segment: The Dismal Science podcast — Mark Thorwell on Australian economics.
Biographical significance: Several significant disclosures. (1) Allan announces the new edition of Fear of Abandonment with a self-aware mock-casual aside — "Have I by any chance mentioned to you that I've got a book coming out in the next few months, Darren?" He notes the chapter ends with the Biden inauguration. (2) He discloses an important philosophical position: he is "uneasy about the idea of universal human rights" and endorses Richard Rorty's pragmatist view — "no such thing as human rights, but we must act as though there were." (3) He explicitly revises his Quad scepticism: "I have been too skeptical of the Quad over the years. It's surprised me." (4) A formative intellectual correction from his Lowy period: Mark Thorwell taught him "the plural of anecdote is not data." (5) "I'm not on LinkedIn" — extends the non-participation portrait.
Key Quotations¶
The new Fear of Abandonment edition — self-aware self-promotion¶
"I was really sorry that I ended my new edition of Year of Abandonment. Have I by any chance mentioned to you that I've got a book coming out in the next few months, Darren? No, no, Allan, I don't believe you have. So please tell us. No, no, let me just leave that in there for later. Anyway, no, the book ends or the chapter ends with the Biden inauguration. But if you ever wanted a powerful image of the end of the international order that we've known, I think this was it. And I think that's a good thing, because clarity at the strategic sort of what they say, speaking to China in a condescending way from a position of strength."
— [00:03:32.700 --> 00:05:01.440]
The self-promotion is played for a beat — mock-casual, immediately self-aware — then dropped. He reveals two substantive things before moving on: the book is imminent ("a few months" from March 2021, suggesting mid-2021 publication), and the new chapter ends with the Biden inauguration (January 2021). The Alaska meeting would not appear in it, which is why he is "really sorry" — it would have been a useful closing image. "If you ever wanted a powerful image of the end of the international order that we've known, I think this was it" — he is offering the Alaska theatrics as a crystallising moment, not lamenting the end but finding it clarifying: both sides have made clear the nature of the relationship without the fiction of partnership.
Richard Rorty — "no such thing as human rights, but we must act as though there were"¶
"For my part, I am in any case uneasy about the idea of universal human rights. I'm more inclined to side with the pragmatic approach of the American philosopher, Richard Rorty, who said, and I know I'm grossly oversimplifying, he basically said, look, there's no such thing as human rights, but we must act as though there were. So none of this undermines Australia's commitment to be a determined advocate of liberal institutions, universal values and human rights, as the Foreign Policy White Paper says, but it does sort of constrain the way in which we think about it."
— [00:16:20.300 --> 00:17:49.340]
The most philosophically significant self-disclosure in the corpus. Allan explicitly names his unease with the idea of universal human rights as a metaphysical claim and identifies with Rorty's pragmatist position. Rorty's argument — associated with essays like "Human Rights, Rationality, and Sentimentality" (1993) — is anti-foundationalist: human rights are not derived from reason or nature but are cultural achievements, sustained by sentimental education and social practices rather than philosophical demonstration. The fiction that they exist as metaphysical givens is useful and worth maintaining, but it is a fiction. Allan endorses this framework explicitly, with the caveat "I know I'm grossly oversimplifying" — his standard epistemic courtesy when deploying a condensed version of a complex argument.
The connection to his earlier Enlightenment liberalism (Gopnik, Ep032: "the philosophical tradition that I identify with myself") is important: Rorty is himself an Enlightenment liberal, but one who holds liberal values on pragmatist rather than foundationalist grounds. Allan's endorsement is consistent: he believes in liberal practices and institutions without claiming their metaphysical necessity. The policy conclusion he draws is also precise: the Rortyan position does not "undermine Australia's commitment" to human rights advocacy, but it "constrains the way we think about it" — it prevents overreach into universalist claims that are historically contingent and politically contested. He also notes: "the same document wouldn't be passed today" about the UDHR, which is historically accurate and the Rortyan point made concrete.
Quad admission — "I have been too skeptical of the Quad over the years"¶
"I mean, precisely the light that was intended, but not all that much more. As we said last time, I don't think there's much more to be done with the Quad in a military sense, because of India's non-alignment and Japan's constitution. And there are also better avenues for undertaking some of the other forms of cooperation. But look, I have to admit at this point that I have been too skeptical of the Quad over the years. It's surprised me. And China has a way of focusing attention, so maybe I'll be wrong again."
— [00:28:46.940 --> 00:29:32.220]
He first named Quad scepticism in Ep058, then modulated it in Ep069. Here he explicitly revises it: "I have been too skeptical of the Quad over the years. It's surprised me." The phrase "maybe I'll be wrong again" is characteristic: having admitted one error, he holds open the possibility of further errors in the same direction. The cause of the surprise is named — "China has a way of focusing attention" — which is itself a precise observation: the Quad's salience increased because China's behaviour made the need for a coordinated signal more urgent than Allan's prior structural assessment suggested.
"Don't mean anything other than 'not China'"¶
"I do think the Quad has serious purpose and advantage, but I think you need to get a lot further along in explaining what you mean by words like free and open before you can declare them to be principles. How open — India's economy is not very open. How free — Vietnam is not very free. What are you going to do about those principles? So at the moment, phrases like 'unconstrained by coercion' don't mean anything other than 'not China.'"
— [00:31:10.740 --> 00:31:53.300]
Having admitted his Quad scepticism was excessive, he immediately reasserts the valid residue of that scepticism: the rhetorical framework of "free and open Indo-Pacific" is not yet a set of principles — it is a branding exercise. India is not economically open; Vietnam is not free. The contradiction between the stated principles and the coalition's actual members has not been resolved. "Don't mean anything other than 'not China'" is the compressed verdict: useful as a negative definition (the opposite of whatever China represents), but not yet a positive vision. This is Allan at his most analytically honest: he revises the excessive scepticism and immediately keeps the analytically valid core of it.
"The plural of anecdote is not data"¶
"I'll always be indebted. Mark was the person who first told me when I was making some wild overstatement at Lowy that the plural of anecdote is not data. And I'll always be grateful to him for that."
— [00:36:53.500 --> 00:38:30.500]
A formative intellectual correction, precisely dated to his Lowy period, attributed to Mark Thorwell (head of the International Economy Programme at Lowy during Allan's time as Executive Director). The context: he was "making some wild overstatement" and Thorwell corrected him with an aphorism. The fact that he cites it decades later, attributes it precisely, and says he is "always grateful" signals that it was a genuine intellectual discipline moment — not just a memorable line but a correction that changed how he argued. The aphorism (often attributed to various sources, but here attributed to Thorwell in context) names the most common error in policy argument: treating accumulated specific cases as evidence of a general pattern without systematic verification. Allan has clearly internalised it: across the corpus he is careful to distinguish patterns he can demonstrate from patterns he is asserting.
The Cormann admission — "I shouldn't say this publicly, but..."¶
"I shouldn't say this publicly, but when Cormann was elected against all the predictions and all those 'how good is Australia' articles were coming out, I suddenly realised that I had absolutely no idea who the current Secretary General of the OECD was. And it turned out... to have been Angel Gurria of Mexico. And he'd been in the job for 15 years."
— [00:34:55.240 --> 00:36:45.500]
The caveat — "I shouldn't say this publicly" — is simultaneously honest and performative: he says it and then says the thing anyway, which is characteristic. The admission is analytically useful: the OECD SG is not a high-profile public figure but exercises significant behind-the-scenes influence on policy norms. His ignorance of Gurria's name is not a failure — Gurria was doing his job well, which means quietly. The observation converts a self-deprecating admission into an analytical point about the nature of multilateral leadership.
Biographical Fragments¶
Fear of Abandonment new edition — imminent publication confirmed, ends at Biden inauguration¶
Evidence: Ep070 [00:03:32.700]. Directly stated (with comic self-deprecation). Confidence: High.
Allan confirms the new edition of Fear of Abandonment is "coming out in the next few months" from March 2021, suggesting mid-2021 publication. He also discloses that the new chapter ends with the Biden inauguration (January 20, 2021). This means the chapter covers 2016–2021, encompassing the Trump years and the transition. He says he is "really sorry" the chapter ends there because the Alaska meeting would have been a vivid closing image. The publication timeline is consistent with references in earlier episodes to the book being in active draft and research through mid-to-late 2020 (Morrison/Payne speeches, Turnbull/Pyne memoirs, Ep066).
Rorty endorsement — philosophical position on human rights¶
Evidence: Ep070 [00:16:20.300]. Directly stated. Confidence: High.
Allan explicitly identifies with Richard Rorty's pragmatist position on human rights: "no such thing as human rights, but we must act as though there were." He prefaces this with "I am in any case uneasy about the idea of universal human rights" — a rare philosophical self-disclosure. Combined with his Enlightenment liberalism (Gopnik, Ep032), his empirical optimism (Pinker, Ep002), and his anti-foundationalist analytical practice throughout the corpus, this completes a coherent philosophical portrait: a Rortyan pragmatist liberal. He believes in liberal institutions and practices not because they are metaphysically grounded but because they work, and because the fiction of universal human rights is worth maintaining for what it achieves.
"The plural of anecdote is not data" — formative correction at Lowy¶
Evidence: Ep070 [00:36:53.500]. Directly stated. Confidence: High.
During his time as Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, Mark Thorwell (head of the International Economy Programme) corrected Allan when he was "making some wild overstatement" by telling him: "the plural of anecdote is not data." Allan says he is "always grateful" for this. The correction was formative — he cites it decades later and attributes it precisely. It is consistent with his analytical practice throughout the corpus: careful distinction between observed patterns and demonstrated ones, reluctance to generalise beyond the evidence, and systematic scepticism about accumulated anecdote as evidence.
"I'm not on LinkedIn" — extends non-participation portrait¶
Evidence: Ep070 [00:34:55.240]. Directly stated ("Can you publish a little article? Anyway, he said... Cormann released an editorial or an opinion piece on LinkedIn. Can you do that? I'm not on LinkedIn."). Confidence: High.
Adding to the established portrait: no social media (Ep012, Ep069), no Foxtel (Ep013), no Disney+ (Ep037), and now no LinkedIn. The admission is incidental — he is asking whether Cormann published on LinkedIn and discovers he does not know because he is not there. Consistent with the hunt-and-gather information philosophy (Ep069): he uses platforms for active information-seeking, not passive presence.
Style and Method Evidence¶
- The self-promotion joke: The mock-casual "Have I by any chance mentioned to you that I've got a book coming out" is played for exactly one beat, then deflated ("let me just leave that in there for later"). He is both announcing and mocking the announcement. Characteristic: he cannot advertise without simultaneously being ironic about the act of advertising.
- "I know I'm grossly oversimplifying": Standard epistemic courtesy before deploying a compressed version of a complex argument. He makes the caveat before the claim, then makes the claim anyway. This is consistently the right rhetorical order: acknowledge the simplification, proceed with the useful simplification.
- "Maybe I'll be wrong again": After admitting the Quad scepticism was excessive, he immediately flags that the partial revision might itself be insufficient. One error acknowledged does not guarantee future accuracy; he holds the uncertainty open.
- "Not China" verdict on Quad principles: Having revised the excessive scepticism, he immediately extracts the analytically valid residue — the principles are not yet principles. The correction and the valid core survive simultaneously.
Reading / Watching / Listening Segment¶
The Dismal Science podcast — Mark Thorwell and Ivan (Australian Institute of Company Directors)¶
Context: Prompted by the episode's running theme of domestic-international policy linkage. Allan's comment: "If you want to understand Australia's international interests, you need a solid understanding of the Australian economy as well. So I was really pleased to discover that an old friend and colleague of mine from the Lowy Institute, where he was head of the International Economy Programme, Mark Thorwell, who's now the chief economist for the Australian Institute of Company Directors, has a terrific weekly podcast called The Dismal Science... Relaxed and easy chemistry, not unlike our own chemistry, Darren... So if any of you are contemplating that [digital NFTs]. Well, I'm not going to invest, but it bewilders me the entire thing." Reveals: The recommendation doubles as biographical: Mark Thorwell is identified as an "old friend and colleague" from Lowy, and the Lowy anecdote ("the plural of anecdote is not data") is attached. Allan explicitly frames the podcast as a "companion piece to Australia in the World" — a complementary analytical resource covering the economic dimension of Australian international interests. "Not unlike our own chemistry" is a rare explicit self-compliment about the podcast format. His verdict on NFTs — "probably not a great idea unless you're a billionaire in the tech industry who's trying to show off to all his mates" — is characteristically blunt and probably correct. "It bewilders me the entire thing" is honest.
Open Questions¶
- Rorty and the human rights framework: This is Allan's most substantial philosophical self-disclosure. Does he develop the Rortyan position further in later episodes — particularly as the Xinjiang sanctions debate continues and Australia is more directly implicated?
- Fear of Abandonment publication: He says "a few months" from March 2021. Does the book appear with a launch episode? Does he discuss the new chapter's conclusions?
- Quad revision: He has moved from scepticism (Ep058) to explicit admission of excessive scepticism (Ep070). Does the subsequent AUKUS announcement (September 2021, Ep098-area) change his assessment again?
- Mark Thorwell / Lowy economics network: Is Thorwell mentioned elsewhere in the corpus? The Lowy Institute International Economy Programme was a significant intellectual environment during Allan's time there.